Rants and Raves

[Aaron Hamlet]

"Lying eyes" is an apt phrase; that's the whole point of data and mathematical modeling.

I personally have only known 3 or 4 people infected with COVID, and I haven't known anyone who's died from it (though I do know of one hospitalization, which was more observational, not an ICU situation.) If I went on objective observation alone, I would say the pandemic response is completely overblown.

BUT: I'm a scientist. I learned many, many years ago that my subjective experience might not only not be the whole picture, but could even lead me to wrong conclusions. So I look at data, and I try to use the best theory I can to build predictive models out of that.

It does take a certain degree of training and education, learning to reject subjective experience in favor of data-driven models (my analogy has always been when Luke dons the blast shield helmet for lightsaber training, "use the Force, Luke!"), but long-term when you see actual results (like you build a device and it works!) you convert.

O.

You edited my response, but that's ok. It was math and stuff from a non peer reviewed NBER paper you cited as evidence that protests, riots, etc after George Floyd murder didn't lead to a spike in China Virus cases. Many say that economics is more an art than a science. You can gather 100 of the most esteemed economists in the world and pay them to show with math and stuff how if you do A, B will be the result. Then pay them to show that if you do A, C will be the result. And though C is diametrically opposed to B, using math and stuff the esteemed economists will show that yes, B and C will be the result of A. Have to watch those with three hands very close.

Objective, subjective observation, anecdotal information is worthless as you stated. That's why I offered none. Spike in cases after protests saw a demographic shift in those hospitalized from the ages of 60+ to the ages of 20-40. Hospital stays were / are shorter in duration and deaths a fraction from where they were. That's hard data. Facts. Compiled by scientists, statisticians, etc. Data driven professionals. Read by my lying eyes. But maybe predictive models you cite as proof SDcst = γ0 + ∑ γ+ Xct β1 + Zst β2 + αc + τt + εsct.

COVID Growthcst, t-1 = γ0 + ∑ γ.

will lead one closer to the truth. But I doubt it. Models cited are used to support preconceived notions, to reinforce a belief system but not a truth

[Worf359]

All of America applauds Big Joe for his decision to have Senator Kamala Harris on the ticket as our next Vice President!

All you worthless Low IQ Deplorable have reason to be very scared of her. She's a former state prosecutor who will leave no stone unturned when it comes to bringing multiple charges against the Trump Crime Family and sending them ALL to prison SOON.

We love you, VP Harris! Kick that swampy Commie Trump ass in November, baby!

He's got dementia and she is just another Ghetto *****. Biden and Harris. Sniff and Blow 2020.

[TMeister]

All of America applauds Big Joe for his decision to have Senator Kamala Harris on the ticket as our next Vice President!

All you worthless Low IQ Deplorable have reason to be very scared of her. She's a former state prosecutor who will leave no stone unturned when it comes to bringing multiple charges against the Trump Crime Family and sending them ALL to prison SOON.

We love you, VP Harris! Kick that swampy Commie Trump ass in November, baby!

[TMeister]

I know more than one or two people that served that support Trump. They're idiots, though.

Only the Low IQ grunt pigs from rural red state shitholes are voting for Trump. Racists are the only assholes that will vote for a blatant racist.

95% of the military both active and retired are proudly voting for Mighty Joe Biden. They want to serve under a Commander-In-Chief who respects the flag and the Constitution.

The military respects tough guys like Big Bad Joe, who is promising to take Fat Fuck Donnie behind the gym and beat the living shit out of him.

Military people do not respect a draft-dodging coward like Pussy Spurs Trump who mocks POWs like John McCain and just smiles and shrugs when Putin is putting bounties on our soldiers's heads.

Pussy Spurs Trump will pay the ultimate price for his treason.

Biden 2020.

[TMeister]

There is no way you can speak of everyone who wore the uniform since I wore it for over 20 years and I support him. That proves your are ignorant and just blowing hot air up Sleepy Joe's skirt. I am absolute proof your statement is both wrong and ignorant. No one can speak on behalf of another much less a whole host of people.

I wore the uniform myself and my entire family is full of both active and military vets who proudly served this country and protected it's Democrat ideals.

We all appreciated serving under phenomenal Commanders-In-Chiefs like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Esteemed men of honor who knew how to lead a nation into unparalled greatness. Men of integrity and grit.

And NONE of us will tolerate a draft-dodging liar and criminal like Pussy Spurs Trump. He's a pro-Russkie SCUMBAG PUPPET that will spend his remaining years in prison like a mangy dog.

So any of you piece of shit fake patriots who vote for Trump better get the HELL OUT before it's too late. We Democrats will have ZERO TOLERANCE for you right wing traitors after November 3rd.

[TMeister]

Everybody there hates Pedo Joe and knows he's a racist.

All of America loves a patriotic and legendary statesman like Mighty Joe Biden and that's why we're voting for him.

You worthless Deplorable Cunts are scared of Big Joe because you know he's going to send Draft-Dodging Pussy Spurs Trump to prison and we Democrats will be laughing watching it all happen!

So get ready to chug that cyanide Kool Aid, Swamp Rats. Your world is coming to a bitter end at the hands of the ruling Dems.

[Niteluvr]

On Sunday, New Zealand marked 100 days without community transmission of COVID-19. From the first known case imported into New Zealand on February 26 to the last case of community transmission detected on May 1, elimination took 65 days.

New Zealand relied on three types of measures to get rid of the virus:

1. ongoing border controls to stop COVID-19 from entering the country.

2. a lockdown and physical distancing to stop community transmission.

3. case-based controls using testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

"The whole Western World has terribly mismanaged this threat, and they're realizing this now," Mr. Baker said.

He said many leaders saw a false dichotomy between saving lives or saving their economies, when in fact businesses thrive best when they have certainty about things like diseases.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia...-with-no-cases

https://theconversation.com/100-days...e-world-143672

They be there and we be here, two totally different environments. We Americans just need to get serious about this Covid shit. 60% of Sturgis, SD residents were against this year's biker rally, which can bring in upwards of 300 k people from all over the US. Sturgis mayor said no real restrictions would be in place. Guess money overrules common sense. I can only imagine how badly Covid could spread nationwide as a result of this one event.

I personally love Sturgis but would not get near the place this time around. Shit like this is why we need to get serious or Covid could easily drag on for a decade, perhaps more.

[Niteluvr]

It does take a certain degree of training and education, learning to reject subjective experience in favor of data-driven models (my analogy has always been when Luke dons the blast shield helmet for lightsaber training, "use the Force, Luke!"), but long-term when you see actual results (like you build a device and it works!) you convert.

O.

As you said (paraphrasing), the key factor in analyzing anything is to completely remove subjectivity (personal bias). Sadly, it no longer happens often.

[Petey1015]

"Lying eyes" is an apt phrase; that's the whole point of data and mathematical modeling.

I personally have only known 3 or 4 people infected with COVID, and I haven't known anyone who's died from it (though I do know of one hospitalization, which was more observational, not an ICU situation.) If I went on objective observation alone, I would say the pandemic response is completely overblown.

BUT: I'm a scientist. I learned many, many years ago that my subjective experience might not only not be the whole picture, but could even lead me to wrong conclusions. So I look at data, and I try to use the best theory I can to build predictive models out of that.

It does take a certain degree of training and education, learning to reject subjective experience in favor of data-driven models (my analogy has always been when Luke dons the blast shield helmet for lightsaber training, "use the Force, Luke!"), but long-term when you see actual results (like you build a device and it works!) you convert.

O.

Critical thinking skills and objective analysis serves one well.

[Isodt]

"Lying eyes" is an apt phrase; that's the whole point of data and mathematical modeling.

I personally have only known 3 or 4 people infected with COVID, and I haven't known anyone who's died from it (though I do know of one hospitalization, which was more observational, not an ICU situation.) If I went on objective observation alone, I would say the pandemic response is completely overblown.

BUT: I'm a scientist. I learned many, many years ago that my subjective experience might not only not be the whole picture, but could even lead me to wrong conclusions. So I look at data, and I try to use the best theory I can to build predictive models out of that.

It does take a certain degree of training and education, learning to reject subjective experience in favor of data-driven models (my analogy has always been when Luke dons the blast shield helmet for lightsaber training, "use the Force, Luke!"), but long-term when you see actual results (like you build a device and it works!) you convert.

O.

Well put O.

[Buck Owens]

"Lying eyes" is an apt phrase; that's the whole point of data and mathematical modeling.

I personally have only known 3 or 4 people infected with COVID, and I haven't known anyone who's died from it (though I do know of one hospitalization, which was more observational, not an ICU situation.) If I went on objective observation alone, I would say the pandemic response is completely overblown.

BUT: I'm a scientist. I learned many, many years ago that my subjective experience might not only not be the whole picture, but could even lead me to wrong conclusions. So I look at data, and I try to use the best theory I can to build predictive models out of that.

It does take a certain degree of training and education, learning to reject subjective experience in favor of data-driven models (my analogy has always been when Luke dons the blast shield helmet for lightsaber training, "use the Force, Luke!"), but long-term when you see actual results (like you build a device and it works!) you convert.

O.

Regarding modeling, all models are wrong but some are more useful then others!

Stay safe!

Buck.

[GingerLookin27]

Boys and Girls.

Ever since Covid hit, I've resorted to enjoying, you know, stroking the banana.

However. Let's just say I developed problems that I'm currently trying to overcome.

Read: I had to cut out XXX material. As I'm finding out, The withdrawal is real (and kind of painful).

I guess my point is how are you lot handling life out there? Mainly precautions before all.

Call me what you will, but I'm trying to have some sense of threat / risk management.

Flipside: What do y'all do if you eh. Go on a break?

Not to mention, I should probably get back into working out. Looking stout with a gut is one thing, but just a gut? Man, that helps no one.

What I wouldn't give to work on my game, and go back to finding a decent lady to have in life.

Thanks and regards.

Ginger.

[Aaron Hamlet]

On Sunday, New Zealand marked 100 days without community transmission of COVID-19. From the first known case imported into New Zealand on February 26 to the last case of community transmission detected on May 1, elimination took 65 days.

New Zealand relied on three types of measures to get rid of the virus:

1. ongoing border controls to stop COVID-19 from entering the country.

2. a lockdown and physical distancing to stop community transmission.

3. case-based controls using testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

Being an island nation that can easily seal borders, having a homogeneous society with a population less than that of metro Atlanta and with the population density of Idaho helped alot. And they found four new cases yesterday.

[Niteluvr]

Bless your heart! Why don't you go outside and play hide and go f*ck yourself

That was priceless, Sarge.

[NuGuy36]

On Sunday, New Zealand marked 100 days without community transmission of COVID-19. From the first known case imported into New Zealand on February 26 to the last case of community transmission detected on May 1, elimination took 65 days.

New Zealand relied on three types of measures to get rid of the virus:

1. ongoing border controls to stop COVID-19 from entering the country.

2. a lockdown and physical distancing to stop community transmission.

3. case-based controls using testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

"The whole Western World has terribly mismanaged this threat, and they're realizing this now," Mr. Baker said.

He said many leaders saw a false dichotomy between saving lives or saving their economies, when in fact businesses thrive best when they have certainty about things like diseases.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia...-with-no-cases

https://theconversation.com/100-days...e-world-143672