The Woodshed

[TallBear]

Performing trend analysis on a day by day basis is a fool's errand, guys. You simply cannot extrapolate any meaningful firm conclusions about infection patterns or fatality rates from the available datasets. Too much remains unknown & public policies based on denial & wishful thinking are not helping the situation. Neither viruses nor science care what you believe. And that includes where you get your news.

Nothwithstanding my own centrist political inclinations, I am a research scientist & getting my information from epidemiologists & other medical professionals, not from MSM & certainly not from social media or fucking Fox. I probably should leave it at that.

[OnTime877]

Most people either listen to left leaning or conservative leaning networks. Both have agendas which involve telling half-truths. The big spike in cases in the states isn't all about increased testing because hospitalization rates are going up considerably nationally as of late. More people are getting sick irrespective of testing.

https://covidtracking.com/data

Yes death rates are down nationally, but they are up and to a significant degree as of late in at least three states, Arizona, Florida, and Texas. Also we will know more soon as to the outcomes of recent spikes in cases in these and other areas. It takes time for the stricken to die. Also hospitalization rates are spiking in Arizona and Texas. They probably are in Florida as well, but reporting on this has been inconsistent over the last three months. In any case these increased hospital rates undermines any claim that the spikes in cases in these states are due to increased testing. Check the graphs.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/arizona

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/texas

Also confirmed cases and death rates are spiking in many Latin American countries. Have a look around. Click on the county of your choice, scroll down and check the graphs. Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina would be good places to start.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

Lastly it's not just about life and death. Not only is getting sick as hell no fun, but there is evidence that Covid-19 causes lasting, serious medical conditions in survivors. All in all, be careful out there gentlemen.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...health-effects

[Powerhouse100]

The CDC released the new IFR (Infectious Fatality Rate) almost two months ago and overall it's. 26% that's it. 26% it's right here on the graph. And deaths are down, they have been steadily decreasing over the last three months. There is no question of that. You can believe whatever you wish but you have no facts. I know you're going to want to keep fighting about this because that's what you like.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

My personal feelings is that we shouldn't shut down the country because of this pandemic but people should be mandated to at least wear masks in public and at work if they deal with the public. I mean, if healthcare workers have to go to work, it would appear everyone else should also. If masks aren't really effective, then healthcare workers should stay home too and we know how that would go.

[Admin2]

You really should expand your information sources; Deaths absolutely HAVE increased, and the percentage of deaths associated with Covid-19 is nearly 5%. The facts are readily available.

The CDC released the new IFR (Infectious Fatality Rate) almost two months ago and overall it's. 26% that's it. 26% it's right here on the graph. And deaths are down, they have been steadily decreasing over the last three months. There is no question of that. You can believe whatever you wish but you have no facts. I know you're going to want to keep fighting about this because that's what you like.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

[ToBeOrNot]

There has been a drastic increase in testing is why there are more reported cases. Make sense? Most people have no symptoms and if there was no testng then they would go unnoticed. Also, the number of deaths have not increased, but the lamestream media doesn't want to report the good news because they want you to live in fear. There has to be more exposure if we are to achieve herd immunity. The survival rate is nearly 99 percent.

To achieve herd immunity an estimated 94% of the population to be not be able to transmit the disease. That's assuming people can't get re-infected of course (that's not know with this yet). Population of the USA is just over 328 million, 94% of that is a little over 308 million so we just have to let over 3 million people die to achieve that.

Cases are down in New York, and they're testing more than anywhere else. Maybe we can't just jump to the conclusion that more testing is causing the number of cases to go up. Percentage of positive tests and hospitalization rates are also metrics used. Both of those are also spiking in the new hots spots. The governors in Arizona, California and Texas are all slowing down or even reversing re-opening plans and mandating masks. They're reluctantly paying attention to the number not the media. And that's been the problem with the USA's response, it has been all reaction if at all and nothing proactive. Science is not our enemy. Incompetent leadership in a crisis is.

Death rate (not deaths) are not increasing because the latest spikes in cases are primarily among younger people and the medical community has been improving their treatments not because there are fewer cases. The good news will be when we catch up with Italy. Holy shit that's a good model compared to the USA now, hell it is hard to find a worse example, although I imagine India is going to lose millions by the time this is done, they've just started and have no where near the capacity to deal with a wide spread pandemic like this.

[JackPacino]

There has been a drastic increase in testing is why there are more reported cases. Make sense? Most people have no symptoms and if there was no testng then they would go unnoticed. Also, the number of deaths have not increased, but the lamestream media doesn't want to report the good news because they want you to live in fear. There has to be more exposure if we are to achieve herd immunity. The survival rate is nearly 99 percent.

Yup, I'm aware of that. Regardless, from my own point of view, I personally knew of no one that had Covid and knew of no one that knew someone that had it. However, since 'opening up' everything, that has changed. Again, from my own personal knowledge. Also, when frequenting commercial places, it's obvious to see that since things reopening, many have taken the "oh goody, it's over!" frame of mind and decide to leave their masks at home and disregard social distancing. But back to the subject at hand, what this means, regardless of any facts or fiction, is AMPs will close back down. Most are down to 1 person. They are quite scared and preparing to bail. Be respectful and come in wearing your mask if they require it.

[Jbvo35]

Maybe you should check YOUR sources from somewhere besides MSNBC, CNN, or the like. Like I said reported cases have gone up due to increased detection through increased testing. Death rates are actually going down.

https://www.google.com/search?q=deat...=1593662929712

Looking at the raw data on this graph, it is plain to see that this virus is most deadly at the beginning of the week and is not deadly at all on the weekends. Hallelujah! We can all leave the house safely on the weekends!

My point here is that no matter what the statistics, they can be manipulated to support whatever cause or agenda the reader wants. Real data analysis however will simply state the trends and not speculate as to 'whys' that aren't supported by the data. What we can see from this data is that there is a general declining trend from may to present in deaths in the USA. This, however is not what the major media outlets are reporting. They are reporting increases in cases. This is also supported by the data, however they aren't reporting how much testing we are doing. You can see that there is a significant number of testing being done here. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/states-comparison Information guided by experience would suggest that as testing increases, a statistically similar increase in positive cases will be seen, as will a statistically similar number of negative cases. However, no news outlet is reporting that we are seeing an increase in the number of negative COVID tests, even though it is a statistical fact based on the raw data.

Don't be duped. The media has a mission to only report what they want you to know. If you want to know the truth, you should read into what is NOT being said in the report and then make a determination of what should be believed.

[MotionLotion]

You really should expand your information sources; Deaths absolutely HAVE increased, and the percentage of deaths associated with Covid-19 is nearly 5%. The facts are readily available.

Maybe you should check YOUR sources from somewhere besides MSNBC, CNN, or the like. Like I said reported cases have gone up due to increased detection through increased testing. Death rates are actually going down.

https://www.google.com/search?q=deat...=1593662929712

[AnandaJim]

Also, the number of deaths have not increased, but the lamestream media doesn't want to report the good news because they want you to live in fear. The survival rate is nearly 99 percent.

You really should expand your information sources; Deaths absolutely HAVE increased, and the percentage of deaths associated with Covid-19 is nearly 5%. The facts are readily available.

[MotionLotion]

I'm glad someone said it. We're now up to 10,000 cases / day in Florida. That's 10 X the amount that was the previous peak back in April. I'm really surprised these places are still open. And surprised people are still going. MT's tend to take their health very seriously. It's their only income. I believe you will start to see closures again very soon.

There has been a drastic increase in testing is why there are more reported cases. Make sense? Most people have no symptoms and if there was no testng then they would go unnoticed. Also, the number of deaths have not increased, but the lamestream media doesn't want to report the good news because they want you to live in fear. There has to be more exposure if we are to achieve herd immunity. The survival rate is nearly 99 percent.

[JackPacino]

Gumbo, I've got mixed opinions about your experience. First of all yes, it was wrong for her to shorten your time when you paid for 60 minutes, and I agree also that it is really annoying to be interrupted with phone calls and doorbells, but nowadays things are a bit different aren't they?. Since the plandemic many establishments have cut their staff and yes even down to a single person and that person must do everything. If she didn't answer the phone then in addition to your you there would be someone else whining that nobody picks up and answers the phone, or if someone walked in there would be another whiner that no one came out to greet them. As far as wearing a mask that is a mandatory order by the state in case you haven't been anywhere else indoors lately to notice. You need to stop complaining and understand times are not what they were and you are lucky these places are even open at all.

I'm glad someone said it. We're now up to 10,000 cases / day in Florida. That's 10 X the amount that was the previous peak back in April. I'm really surprised these places are still open. And surprised people are still going. MT's tend to take their health very seriously. It's their only income. I believe you will start to see closures again very soon.

[MotionLotion]

Went in the other day, only one girl working. No one else there. Asked for a 1 hour massage, with shower. Shower was ok, got back to the room, she starts a 5/10 massage. Phone rings, she has to answer. Phone rings again, she has to answer. Door bell rings, she answers, I can hear another client come in, she leads them to a room, and comes back to me. Then everything is rushed. Shower time included, I was in there for maybe 25 minutes, had to haggle to get some of my coins back. Said she'd give me more time next time. Told her there wouldn't be a next time. Oh yeah, had to wear a mask the entire time.

Gumbo, I've got mixed opinions about your experience. First of all yes, it was wrong for her to shorten your time when you paid for 60 minutes, and I agree also that it is really annoying to be interrupted with phone calls and doorbells, but nowadays things are a bit different aren't they?. Since the plandemic many establishments have cut their staff and yes even down to a single person and that person must do everything. If she didn't answer the phone then in addition to your you there would be someone else whining that nobody picks up and answers the phone, or if someone walked in there would be another whiner that no one came out to greet them. As far as wearing a mask that is a mandatory order by the state in case you haven't been anywhere else indoors lately to notice. You need to stop complaining and understand times are not what they were and you are lucky these places are even open at all.

[Mosin Nagant]

...
Did find $3 k (aka my fun stash) in my car a few months ago. Hell that was fun explaining. I believe it was a Dave Ramsey financial course I referenced and wanting to try an all cash lifestyle. Ffs. LOL.

Ha, this made me laugh! Great idea about Dave Ramsey, I will have to remember in case mine ever finds my stash. I have found hidden compartments in cars, my work bag etc that are not obvious as a place to hide my stash. You just have to remember to remove the stash when someone else is in there (e. G. Mechanic).

I haven't posted here in a bit as my business takes me to Jacksonville less frequently these days.

I get my money in a few ways:

1. SO doesn't pay attention to bank statements. I can take out a number of larger withdrawals ( 200) every month and she won't notice. I do it regularly, even if I don't have hobby plans to maintain a stash. She only looks at the balance when she is at an ATM. I also on a more frequent basis take out varying amounts of 40-100 for my stash.

2. SO and I have multiple accounts for various purposes. She knows they exist but never looks except at the main one. Some are at other banks and I get the statements online. IF she hired an investigator, the paper trail is there. But if she did that, she already knows.

3. Don't know if it helps you guys but I have a couple of cash cards that are good to use with my civlian nonpro's. Walmart has a BlueBird AMEX, online statements only, they have my work address to send stuff to. You load cash on it at Walmart and you can pay for things like hotels, dinner, concerts etc. Whatever you use to entertain your FWB. Hmm, maybe those girls ARE pro's, just take a different form of reimbursement. Lonely housewives and vengeful divorcees are the ones that benefit!

4. There is also a debit card with PayPal. Again, there will be a paper trail but it can be hidden. But for the actiivities mentioned, you sometimes need a credit card other than your usual one. You just transfer money to your card from your bank account.

5. Like others, I do some side consulting. SO never sees the check I get. Same with any reimbursement where I don't have electronic transfer set up.

In the end, depends on how much your SO likes to snoop.

[TallBear]

I own a mostly cash-basis business with multiple revenue streams & my occasional side gigs are a bit more lucrative than Mama Bear realizes. She does know that I have always kept some cash stashed around. She does the same thing. Life has been good & neither of us gives a shit how much the other one has squirreled away. And because I really don't care to fuck this situation up, I spend more of my play money on presents & good weed than I do on this hobby.

[Powerhouse100]

Unless you have a woman who manages money well, I don't see why anyone would want to share accounts with her. I stopped that a long time ago because she was spending more money than what she was putting into the account. She has nothing to do with my account! I pay the bills, all of them, and she has no say in the matter-as far as how I spend my hard earned money.