General Reports

[QUOTE=Catlikr;4700857]If you're still mongering after 80 there's not much that's going to kill you![/QUOTE]I was out and about yesterday and could have picked up 3 different tricks. But my better judgement took over. These girls on that candy and what lord else they might be carrying around. Have weakened immune systems already due to the heavy candy use. And they are not discriminatory of whom they service. I got too much at stake at home to be bringing back the C-19. So I've decided to take a serious break until they get a handle on this. Mongers be safe and smart pussy ain't going nowhere.

[QUOTE=Rodrian;4701221]I think there's some math there that you're missing guy. The fatality rate those numbers suggest. Covid looks to have a mortality rate of about 4%, around 15% with the elderly and infirm. Flu on the other hand has a mortality rate of. 05%. You're throwing around numbers like if only 40,000 die you're assuming only 100,000 will get sick. But this disease seems to be as transmissible as flu if not more so. So let's assume we'll see the same number of cases as flu, 34 million. In that case we're looking at 1,360,000 dead. Now let's imagien worst case scenario, the whole country catches it. With a population of 300 million you're looking at 12 million dead. And now to put all that in perspective let's compare with how many soldiers we lost in WW2, 417,000. This has the potential to be a disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since the Spanish flu. Obviously the last thing we want to do is panic. That helps no one, but to dismiss this as nothing would be a grave mistake.[/QUOTE]No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4701692]No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?[/QUOTE]Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.

I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.

[QUOTE=DrRyuhou;4708756]I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.[/QUOTE]Surprised more of the old school favorites haven't started posting yet. I know a lot of them were in the service industry.

[QUOTE=BDinkie;4708162]Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.[/QUOTE]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you [I]will [/I]get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?

[QUOTE=Zomby;4710825]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.[/QUOTE]Even with the steps being taken by the govt to slow or stop the spread of this virus. There are two groups, according to a health professional I spoke with today that are totally unregulated and will continue to spread this virus throughout the population even of those they have no direct contact with and that is the homeless and sex workers especially SW's. She told me that they should be a large focus by the govt.

[QUOTE=Zomby;4710825]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you [I]will [/I]get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?[/QUOTE]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4711136]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?[/QUOTE]With the way this country has responded thus far to this crisis, <100 k US deaths would be a miracle. The latest models show we are racing off a cliff of catastrophe:

[URL]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf[/URL]

Now here is what that study says in plain English:

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html[/URL]

BTW, mortality rate is based off of known cases, as in the % of people who are dying from those we have confirmed tests for. That means the mortality rate will not decrease as more positive tests are discovered. In fact, in Italy the mortality rate is doing the opposite, it is steadily increasing. We are also beginning to see an increase in serious illness from young, healthy people. We know very little of this disease, and as it spreads the possibility of rapid mutation into an even deadlier strain increases.

Finally, as grim as the current modeling numbers are, even they don't include how many more people will die from non COVID-19 cases, because the hospitals and ICUs will be overrun with patients I. E. Accident victims, cardiac cases, cancer patients, premature babies, etc.

Realistically we are going to have to have cycles of isolation for the next 12-18 months, which will most likely cripple the world economy and will forever change the world as we know it, even while saving lives from this initial outbreak. If we relax on suppression at any point before there is a tested, viable vaccine, then it will rip through our populations as if we never practiced suppression in the first place.

Seriously folks wake up to what is really going on here. No one alive has ever witnessed a crisis of this magnitude. This is going to get far worse before it begins to get any better.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4711136]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?[/QUOTE]For some reason, betting on whether or not my co-workers, neighbors, friends, and family live or die doesn't appeal to me.

[QUOTE=DrRyuhou;4708756]I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.[/QUOTE]Doc, believe I'm going to take your advice.

[QUOTE=DieselBoy502;4711568]With the way this country has responded thus far to this crisis, <100 k US deaths would be a miracle. The latest models show we are racing off a cliff of catastrophe:

[URL]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf[/URL]

Now here is what that study says in plain English:

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html[/URL]

BTW, mortality rate is based off of known cases, as in the % of people who are dying from those we have confirmed tests for. That means the mortality rate will not decrease as more positive tests are discovered. In fact, in Italy the mortality rate is doing the opposite, it is steadily increasing. We are also beginning to see an increase in serious illness from young, healthy people. We know very little of this disease, and as it spreads the possibility of rapid mutation into an even deadlier strain increases.

Finally, as grim as the current modeling numbers are, even they don't include how many more people will die from non COVID-19 cases, because the hospitals and ICUs will be overrun with patients I. E. Accident victims, cardiac cases, cancer patients, premature babies, etc.

Realistically we are going to have to have cycles of isolation for the next 12-18 months, which will most likely cripple the world economy and will forever change the world as we know it, even while saving lives from this initial outbreak. If we relax on suppression at any point before there is a tested, viable vaccine, then it will rip through our populations as if we never practiced suppression in the first place.

Seriously folks wake up to what is really going on here. No one alive has ever witnessed a crisis of this magnitude. This is going to get far worse before it begins to get any better.[/QUOTE]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4712071]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.[/QUOTE]You mean the same 3 letter faculty (sic) that sent out a load of faulty test kits to public health authorities, then caused a 3 week delay in testing while they produced more reagent? The same one that wouldn't allow testing in Seattle of samples? (which were tested anyway and discovered to be positive, but then they weren't allowed to report).

There have been tests available in other countries for over a month which give results in hours not days. Great that there are advances being made but the overall US response to this threat is seriously lagging.

Additionally, there was literally no panic in anything I said. I was matter of fact, and provided sources for my assertions that COVID-19 will be world changing. I said nothing about anarchy or chaos, only that current models show potential for millions of Americans dying if suppression is not successful. College kids are still partying on the beaches in Florida, and the spread is accelerating rapidly. Current mortality rate in Italy is 8. 3%. They have surpassed China in total mortality as of today. Looking at the incubation periods the spread is possibly past the point of containment in the US. California currently projects more than half of their population will be infected within 8 weeks.

Yes wash you hands. Yes practice social distancing. Yes limit travel and contact where possible. But also understand that the same 3 letter org you claim to be part of had already screwed the pooch several times. It's work is also undermined by an idiot in chief who is both a pathological liar and a pathogen himself.

Now if you aren't full of shite and you actually do work at or with the CDC, haven't you got better things to be doing than telling me to stfu? If you don't then we are well and truly fucked.

Source:

Let your ladies know and hit me if you know a hungry lady in need. 😂128514;128075;129305;.

[QUOTE=DieselBoy502;4712258]You mean the same 3 letter faculty (sic) that sent out a load of faulty test kits to public health authorities, then caused a 3 week delay in testing while they produced more reagent? The same one that wouldn't allow testing in Seattle of samples? (which were tested anyway and discovered to be positive, but then they weren't allowed to report).

There have been tests available in other countries for over a month which give results in hours not days. Great that there are advances being made but the overall US response to this threat is seriously lagging.

Additionally, there was literally no panic in anything I said. I was matter of fact, and provided sources for my assertions that COVID-19 will be world changing. I said nothing about anarchy or chaos, only that current models show potential for millions of Americans dying if suppression is not successful. College kids are still partying on the beaches in Florida, and the spread is accelerating rapidly. Current mortality rate in Italy is 8. 3%. They have surpassed China in total mortality as of today. Looking at the incubation periods the spread is possibly past the point of containment in the US. California currently projects more than half of their population will be infected within 8 weeks.

Yes wash you hands. Yes practice social distancing. Yes limit travel and contact where possible. But also understand that the same 3 letter org you claim to be part of had already screwed the pooch several times. It's work is also undermined by an idiot in chief who is both a pathological liar and a pathogen himself.

Now if you aren't full of shite and you actually do work at or with the CDC, haven't you got better things to be doing than telling me to stfu? If you don't then we are well and truly fucked.

Source:[/QUOTE]Nope. I do not work for or with the inept bunch at the CDC. Just here on business. It is a clusterfuck here. I just have more data than most as I am here in the middle of this shitshow getting information in real time. There are rapid diagnostics and therapeutic antibodies inbound. I do a lot of waiting for the next meeting. So yes, time to kill.