Printable View
[QUOTE=DaViper;1665569]True Ravens won that public bet but if I go w / them this week I would be going against my theory of betting against the public which has won me a lot of $$$. Not saying public never wins but I am saying long run this system wins[/QUOTE]With you on this one.
[QUOTE=DaViper;1665569]True Ravens won that public bet but if I go w / them this week I would be going against my theory of betting against the public which has won me a lot of $$$. Not saying public never wins but I am saying long run this system wins[/QUOTE]I am a huge football fan, college and pros. One thing I've learned is that there are no guaranteed winners. College is more of a sure thing, but the NFL? There is much more parity there. Any team can beat any team on any given Sunday. Who thought the Giants four or five years ago (who are the team with the worst record to ever win the Super Bowl) would beat the undefeated Patriots with that year's MVP Tom Brady having just set the NFL season TD record?
Probably in the lower single-digit percentages. But, they did.
Be careful when betting on the pros. There are "NO" favorites to win in actuality!
[QUOTE=Hypo Luxa; 1665953]I am a huge football fan, college and pros. One thing I've learned is that there are no guaranteed winners. College is more of a sure thing, but the NFL? There is much more parity there. Any team can beat any team on any given Sunday. Who thought the Giants four or five years ago (who are the team with the worst record to ever win the Super Bowl) would beat the undefeated Patriots with that year's MVP Tom Brady having just set the NFL season TD record?
Probably in the lower single-digit percentages. But, they did.
Be careful when betting on the pros. There are "NO" favorites to win in actuality![/QUOTE]To be honest I put my money on the giants that year. If I remember correctly they also played the last game of the regular season and it was the giants who broke that perfect season. I felt after that the pats were exposed and vulnerable and it was only a matter of time before they lost another game. College regular season is more of a guaranteed, but not the bowl season. Especially this past bowl season, a ton of bs. I never seen so much sudden change in results. I kind of felt some were fixed. As mentioned before one thing people might want to look into is how many times the dogs ATS win in the SB. I don't the number myself, but do realize its not very often the fav covers. I am a believer that lines are inflated on the fav for tv games so that might be the reason.
[QUOTE=DaViper;1665569]True Ravens won that public bet but if I go w / them this week I would be going against my theory of betting against the public which has won me a lot of $$$. Not saying public never wins but I am saying long run this system wins[/QUOTE]Keep in mind now until the game is a lot of time for the numbers to change. When I checked today, at 3. 5 only about 53% of the public are taking the ravens. That can easily continue to go do as we get closer. Basically I wouldn't suggest being hastey on putting in your bet just yet if thats how you determine. Going down to just a fg could easily change the publics mind on either side.
[QUOTE=Blade82;1666062]If I remember correctly they also played the last game of the regular season and it was the giants who broke that perfect season. I felt after that the pats were exposed and vulnerable and it was only a matter of time before they lost another game.[/QUOTE]In the first super bowl between the two, the Pats were actually undefeated for the regular season (and of course playoffs). It may have been the second meeting between the two in the super bowl where the giants beat them earlier. Can't remember. But I do remember the Pats were going for the undefeated season record to share with the Dolphins of the '70s.
[QUOTE=Hypo Luxa;1666091]In the first super bowl between the two, the Pats were actually undefeated for the regular season (and of course playoffs). It may have been the second meeting between the two in the super bowl where the giants beat them earlier. Can't remember. But I do remember the Pats were going for the undefeated season record to share with the Dolphins of the '70s.[/QUOTE]Yes that year Pats were undefeated going into Superbowl but I also took the Giants cause Pats was giving a ridiculous number for a Championship game I think it was 15 or 16? I never give big points on title games too much incentive for the dog
[QUOTE=Blade82;1666083]Keep in mind now until the game is a lot of time for the numbers to change. When I checked today, at 3. 5 only about 53% of the public are taking the ravens. That can easily continue to go do as we get closer. Basically I wouldn't suggest being hastey on putting in your bet just yet if thats how you determine. Going down to just a fg could easily change the publics mind on either side.[/QUOTE]As long as line stays under 5 which was opening line and under 49 I'm on SF and over
Not to change the subject, but this being the General section:
[url]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/30/ron-jeremy-in-critical-condition-heart-aneurysm_n_2582953.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003[/url]
Not a good predicted outcome. This is about as high of a mortality rate problem as you can have!
Everyone get in an extra stroke with your next provider visit in honor or Ron! The man who has fucked more beautiful women than most of us have ever fantasized about!
[QUOTE=Hypo Luxa;1666091]In the first super bowl between the two, the Pats were actually undefeated for the regular season (and of course playoffs). It may have been the second meeting between the two in the super bowl where the giants beat them earlier. Can't remember. But I do remember the Pats were going for the undefeated season record to share with the Dolphins of the '70s.[/QUOTE]It was the first one, I couldn't remember if the Pats did win in the regular season or just barely got by. I remember the controversey on whether NE should have played their stars in the last game. At first I never think anything of the giants because they just barely got in playoffs and NE prob wasn't taking the game seriously. It wasn't until the playoffs progressed I realised they had a legit shot at winning the whole thing.
[QUOTE=DaViper;1666121]As long as line stays under 5 which was opening line and under 49 I'm on SF and over[/QUOTE]Beliefs are the line will go back up to 5. If I was to take SF and thats true, prob best to put in now. I think the o / you is really a toss, but with SB history and I think public is liking under, over might be the way to go. Kind of hard to imagine though as these are 2 defensive teams.
[QUOTE=Blade82;1666249]Beliefs are the line will go back up to 5. If I was to take SF and thats true, prob best to put in now. I think the o / you is really a toss, but with SB history and I think public is liking under, over might be the way to go. Kind of hard to imagine though as these are 2 defensive teams.[/QUOTE]Yah but if I doubt it but if line goes to 5 and higher I'm on Ravens but I doubt will go back to 5 as for o / you last yr they played 16-6 but that was w / alex smith
Where you guys going watch the game?
[QUOTE=DaViper;1666289]Yah but if I doubt it but if line goes to 5 and higher I'm on Ravens but I doubt will go back to 5 as for o / you last yr they played 16-6 but that was w / alex smith[/QUOTE]I just realized 5 was just the opening line as soon as the matchup was determined. Depending on how you take it, to me the real line would be 3. 5-4 what a lot houses had it at when they opened. For those against the public people, I just read the big bets are on SF. I guess with SB, there will be a lot of casual gamblers playing. Heard the field is starting to even out though and could get as high as 4. 5 on sun or just maintain. So I guess SF takers should put in already and ravens wait till gameday. I think the public is also on the over, so I probably going to revert back to under what I envisioned. Not very confident about it though and may go back to over. Whatever you bros. decide GL and be safe.
[QUOTE=Blade82;1668123]I just realized 5 was just the opening line as soon as the matchup was determined. Depending on how you take it, to me the real line would be 3. 5-4 what a lot houses had it at when they opened. For those against the public people, I just read the big bets are on SF. I guess with SB, there will be a lot of casual gamblers playing. Heard the field is starting to even out though and could get as high as 4. 5 on sun or just maintain. So I guess SF takers should put in already and ravens wait till gameday. I think the public is also on the over, so I probably going to revert back to under what I envisioned. Not very confident about it though and may go back to over. Whatever you bros. decide GL and be safe.[/QUOTE]True this Super Bowl is a tuff one I'm In Vegas right now and line is 4 and o / you 48. Looks like tho there are a lot of SF fans here. Don't really know which way to go so I just might have to go with who I like win since looks like public seems to be getting closer now slight edge to Ravens so my Official play will be on the RAVENS but not going to go crazy on it.
[blue][Deleted by Admin][/blue]
[b][u]EDITOR'S NOTE[/u]:[/b] [blue]This report was edited or deleted in accordance with the Forum's policy prohibiting any discussion regarding [u]racial issues[/u]. This action is in no way a reflection of the merits of the author's comments.
I am aware that the vast majority of references to racial issues are legitimate attempts to advise other fellow members about local racial issues and prejudices. However, past discussions in the Forum has repeatedly demonstrated that the subject simply cannot be discussed intelligently, in any form or for any reason, without being misinterpreted and without starting flame wars.
Please do not engage in discussions about race in the Forum. Please read the Forum's Posting Guidelines for further information.
[i]Thanks![/i][/blue]