General Reports

[QUOTE=Catlikr;4700857]If you're still mongering after 80 there's not much that's going to kill you![/QUOTE]I was out and about yesterday and could have picked up 3 different tricks. But my better judgement took over. These girls on that candy and what lord else they might be carrying around. Have weakened immune systems already due to the heavy candy use. And they are not discriminatory of whom they service. I got too much at stake at home to be bringing back the C-19. So I've decided to take a serious break until they get a handle on this. Mongers be safe and smart pussy ain't going nowhere.

[QUOTE=Rodrian;4701221]I think there's some math there that you're missing guy. The fatality rate those numbers suggest. Covid looks to have a mortality rate of about 4%, around 15% with the elderly and infirm. Flu on the other hand has a mortality rate of. 05%. You're throwing around numbers like if only 40,000 die you're assuming only 100,000 will get sick. But this disease seems to be as transmissible as flu if not more so. So let's assume we'll see the same number of cases as flu, 34 million. In that case we're looking at 1,360,000 dead. Now let's imagien worst case scenario, the whole country catches it. With a population of 300 million you're looking at 12 million dead. And now to put all that in perspective let's compare with how many soldiers we lost in WW2, 417,000. This has the potential to be a disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since the Spanish flu. Obviously the last thing we want to do is panic. That helps no one, but to dismiss this as nothing would be a grave mistake.[/QUOTE]No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4701692]No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?[/QUOTE]Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.

I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.

[QUOTE=DrRyuhou;4708756]I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.[/QUOTE]Surprised more of the old school favorites haven't started posting yet. I know a lot of them were in the service industry.

[QUOTE=BDinkie;4708162]Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.[/QUOTE]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you [I]will [/I]get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?

[QUOTE=Zomby;4710825]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.[/QUOTE]Even with the steps being taken by the govt to slow or stop the spread of this virus. There are two groups, according to a health professional I spoke with today that are totally unregulated and will continue to spread this virus throughout the population even of those they have no direct contact with and that is the homeless and sex workers especially SW's. She told me that they should be a large focus by the govt.

[QUOTE=Zomby;4710825]Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the [I]other [/I]people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is [I]not [/I]primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to [I]slow [/I]the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits [I]next [/I]year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you [I]will [/I]get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?[/QUOTE]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4711136]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?[/QUOTE]With the way this country has responded thus far to this crisis, <100 k US deaths would be a miracle. The latest models show we are racing off a cliff of catastrophe:

[URL]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf[/URL]

Now here is what that study says in plain English:

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html[/URL]

BTW, mortality rate is based off of known cases, as in the % of people who are dying from those we have confirmed tests for. That means the mortality rate will not decrease as more positive tests are discovered. In fact, in Italy the mortality rate is doing the opposite, it is steadily increasing. We are also beginning to see an increase in serious illness from young, healthy people. We know very little of this disease, and as it spreads the possibility of rapid mutation into an even deadlier strain increases.

Finally, as grim as the current modeling numbers are, even they don't include how many more people will die from non COVID-19 cases, because the hospitals and ICUs will be overrun with patients I. E. Accident victims, cardiac cases, cancer patients, premature babies, etc.

Realistically we are going to have to have cycles of isolation for the next 12-18 months, which will most likely cripple the world economy and will forever change the world as we know it, even while saving lives from this initial outbreak. If we relax on suppression at any point before there is a tested, viable vaccine, then it will rip through our populations as if we never practiced suppression in the first place.

Seriously folks wake up to what is really going on here. No one alive has ever witnessed a crisis of this magnitude. This is going to get far worse before it begins to get any better.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4711136]No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?[/QUOTE]For some reason, betting on whether or not my co-workers, neighbors, friends, and family live or die doesn't appeal to me.

[QUOTE=DrRyuhou;4708756]I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.[/QUOTE]Doc, believe I'm going to take your advice.

[QUOTE=DieselBoy502;4711568]With the way this country has responded thus far to this crisis, <100 k US deaths would be a miracle. The latest models show we are racing off a cliff of catastrophe:

[URL]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf[/URL]

Now here is what that study says in plain English:

[URL]https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html[/URL]

BTW, mortality rate is based off of known cases, as in the % of people who are dying from those we have confirmed tests for. That means the mortality rate will not decrease as more positive tests are discovered. In fact, in Italy the mortality rate is doing the opposite, it is steadily increasing. We are also beginning to see an increase in serious illness from young, healthy people. We know very little of this disease, and as it spreads the possibility of rapid mutation into an even deadlier strain increases.

Finally, as grim as the current modeling numbers are, even they don't include how many more people will die from non COVID-19 cases, because the hospitals and ICUs will be overrun with patients I. E. Accident victims, cardiac cases, cancer patients, premature babies, etc.

Realistically we are going to have to have cycles of isolation for the next 12-18 months, which will most likely cripple the world economy and will forever change the world as we know it, even while saving lives from this initial outbreak. If we relax on suppression at any point before there is a tested, viable vaccine, then it will rip through our populations as if we never practiced suppression in the first place.

Seriously folks wake up to what is really going on here. No one alive has ever witnessed a crisis of this magnitude. This is going to get far worse before it begins to get any better.[/QUOTE]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4712071]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.[/QUOTE]You mean the same 3 letter faculty (sic) that sent out a load of faulty test kits to public health authorities, then caused a 3 week delay in testing while they produced more reagent? The same one that wouldn't allow testing in Seattle of samples? (which were tested anyway and discovered to be positive, but then they weren't allowed to report).

There have been tests available in other countries for over a month which give results in hours not days. Great that there are advances being made but the overall US response to this threat is seriously lagging.

Additionally, there was literally no panic in anything I said. I was matter of fact, and provided sources for my assertions that COVID-19 will be world changing. I said nothing about anarchy or chaos, only that current models show potential for millions of Americans dying if suppression is not successful. College kids are still partying on the beaches in Florida, and the spread is accelerating rapidly. Current mortality rate in Italy is 8. 3%. They have surpassed China in total mortality as of today. Looking at the incubation periods the spread is possibly past the point of containment in the US. California currently projects more than half of their population will be infected within 8 weeks.

Yes wash you hands. Yes practice social distancing. Yes limit travel and contact where possible. But also understand that the same 3 letter org you claim to be part of had already screwed the pooch several times. It's work is also undermined by an idiot in chief who is both a pathological liar and a pathogen himself.

Now if you aren't full of shite and you actually do work at or with the CDC, haven't you got better things to be doing than telling me to stfu? If you don't then we are well and truly fucked.

Source:

Let your ladies know and hit me if you know a hungry lady in need. 😂128514;128075;129305;.

[QUOTE=DieselBoy502;4712258]You mean the same 3 letter faculty (sic) that sent out a load of faulty test kits to public health authorities, then caused a 3 week delay in testing while they produced more reagent? The same one that wouldn't allow testing in Seattle of samples? (which were tested anyway and discovered to be positive, but then they weren't allowed to report).

There have been tests available in other countries for over a month which give results in hours not days. Great that there are advances being made but the overall US response to this threat is seriously lagging.

Additionally, there was literally no panic in anything I said. I was matter of fact, and provided sources for my assertions that COVID-19 will be world changing. I said nothing about anarchy or chaos, only that current models show potential for millions of Americans dying if suppression is not successful. College kids are still partying on the beaches in Florida, and the spread is accelerating rapidly. Current mortality rate in Italy is 8. 3%. They have surpassed China in total mortality as of today. Looking at the incubation periods the spread is possibly past the point of containment in the US. California currently projects more than half of their population will be infected within 8 weeks.

Yes wash you hands. Yes practice social distancing. Yes limit travel and contact where possible. But also understand that the same 3 letter org you claim to be part of had already screwed the pooch several times. It's work is also undermined by an idiot in chief who is both a pathological liar and a pathogen himself.

Now if you aren't full of shite and you actually do work at or with the CDC, haven't you got better things to be doing than telling me to stfu? If you don't then we are well and truly fucked.

Source:[/QUOTE]Nope. I do not work for or with the inept bunch at the CDC. Just here on business. It is a clusterfuck here. I just have more data than most as I am here in the middle of this shitshow getting information in real time. There are rapid diagnostics and therapeutic antibodies inbound. I do a lot of waiting for the next meeting. So yes, time to kill.

Fear mongering is getting worse by each day but you have to understand some people can't emotionally deal with these types of things very well.

[URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XBzcCg3alQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2NXC_xrY_VYYQuJxuVkCHXhmj-_g7UVaw-7MO59W8OfJ_IulXntgriXRg[/URL]

[URL]https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf[/URL]

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[QUOTE=Kingster;4710729]Surprised more of the old school favorites haven't started posting yet. I know a lot of them were in the service industry.[/QUOTE]Talked to a UTR I know. One of the issues is that most of them have kids and now don't have anyone to watch them. There are a ton of girls that are UTR that would be available but can't cause they don't have sitters.

Where are the old school girls like Star, Bailey, and the rest? Hell I’d pay a finders fee if one of you hooked me up with Bailey lol

The flu kills more but COVID-19 is that there is no cure for it.

So yeah flu kills more but this is more deadly and not preventable and people don't get flu and are carriers with asymptomatic like Corona. Escorts could be carriers and you now have it.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4712071]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.[/QUOTE]

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The purpose of this Forum is to provide for the exchange if information between men on the subject of finding women for sex. Let's stick to the subject.[/blue]

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4712071]I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.[/QUOTE]A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

As much as I dread getting my pandemic info from this site your explanation was perfect and welcoming. Be safe and again thank you!

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4719188]A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4719188]
The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.
[/QUOTE]I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

[URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/URL]

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4719188]A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.[/QUOTE]This calculation depends on the CFR being around 7%. That is the number reported for Italy, but the demographics there are very different, with a higher proportion of elderly. In other countries the CFR is much lower. Its too early to tell what it will be in the US, in part because testing isn't fully operational yet. As someone once said, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. Stay healthy.

[QUOTE=Sexmoron;4719949]I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

[URL]https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Admittedly, the numbers were from about a week or so ago and in my hurry today I did not update them as I should have. Thank you for providing the updated numbers.

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4719188]A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.[/QUOTE]With an undergrad degree in math with a minor in French from Vanderbilt, Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa, Ph. D. From McGill in Montreal and MD from Johns Hopkins, I am glad that you can straighten me out in math and epidemiology. Thank you for correcting me as I obviously do not have a clue.

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4719188]A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.[/QUOTE]3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

[QUOTE=LoneWolf3;4720336]3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.[/QUOTE]I will take the under.

[QUOTE=LoneWolf3;4720336]3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.[/QUOTE]3 million is how many Americans die a year (roughly) from all causes put together, disease, accidents, murder, and anything else you can think of. Granted it's not exactly 3 million, but that's a pretty good estimate.

As for your 500k question, lets hope it is under, thats the point of quarantineS, stay at home orders, etc. That would mean it worked.

[QUOTE=LoneWolf3;4720336]3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.[/QUOTE]I'm going under 500 k.

[QUOTE=SandbergFan;4720208]Admittedly, the numbers were from about a week or so ago and in my hurry today I did not update them as I should have. Thank you for providing the updated numbers.[/QUOTE]That's understood. Interesting though, yesterday the number was 65285. Today it is 83,507.

Consider tipping big if you're still seeing someone. Consider making survival donations to your favorites even if you're not. A lot of really nice providers are trying to keep their rooms and not go homeless right now. It's bad.

If we don't take care of them now, expect to see the quality of providers crash in the near future.

Anyone having trouble viewing ads. I tried two different devices, no luck. Thanks.

[QUOTE=DrRyuhou;4722969]Consider tipping big if you're still seeing someone. Consider making survival donations to your favorites even if you're not. A lot of really nice providers are trying to keep their rooms and not go homeless right now. It's bad.

If we don't take care of them now, expect to see the quality of providers crash in the near future.[/QUOTE]I strongly disagree. These girls run through a lot of money. Those living in hotel rooms and don't have enough money for the next days fee is using the money for something other than survival. As far as the providers in Louisville there are not that many of quality that I have seen as far as the escorts (streetwalkers with a phone and a room) goes. It might do justice to let them starve out and the quality comes back. The street walkers on Ormbsy / Dixie hwy before 2015 or so is about the quality of a lot of women who are posting as escorts now days.

[QUOTE=AgainLLook;4728285]Anyone having trouble viewing ads. I tried two different devices, no luck. Thanks.[/QUOTE]I usually browse [URL]escortbabylon.net[/URL] and escort fish. Also just checked skip the games. No problems. But I have noticed fake ads on EB have dropped dramatically. Maybe scammers don't have good hygiene?

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4720377]I will take the under.[/QUOTE]There is a new fingerstick blood test coming within a week maybe two. Results in one minute. Not only will it tell you if you have a current infection or not, it will also tell you if you have had the infection previously and now have a certain level of host immunity. This is going to change the dynamics completely.

My new prediction is less than 80,000 deaths based on this device.

[QUOTE=MTWilliams911;4728493]There is a new fingerstick blood test coming within a week maybe two. Results in one minute. Not only will it tell you if you have a current infection or not, it will also tell you if you have had the infection previously and now have a certain level of host immunity. This is going to change the dynamics completely.

My new prediction is less than 80,000 deaths based on this device.[/QUOTE]Got a linkable source for that? One that is public and not behind a paywall?

[QUOTE=Zomby;4728641]Got a linkable source for that? One that is public and not behind a paywall?[/QUOTE]According to the USA TODAY newspaper. FDA shot it down because of the inaccuracies of the test. They say it will cause more harm than good, so don't expect it.