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[QUOTE=AaronHamlet;4754694]That's of confirmed cases. US testing going on now suggests 10-15% of all had China virus. If so, fatality rate down to flu level at around 0.2%. Italy 21,300 dead over age of sixty, 1,030 under age of sixty. Italy population at 60 million.[/QUOTE]Wrong! FYI, COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. Updated chart 4/21/2020.
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4754711]Wrong! FYI, COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. Updated chart 4/21/2020.[/QUOTE]Yeah, C-19 is like the flu on nitrous.
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4754711]Wrong! FYI, COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. 4/21/2020.[/QUOTE]Agreed. In the last 24 hours, Georgia had an additional 767 cased diagnosed and 42 additional deaths. What could possibly go wrong by opening the AMP's early?
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4754711]Wrong! FYI, COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. Updated chart 4/21/2020.[/QUOTE]Yes but we don't have the correct data.
The experts are saying there are 50 to 95 times as many infections as the models are showing.
Models are only as good as the data that you enter.
The guy that did the "gold standard model" has redid it 7 times and it keeps going down.
Now down to 60 k deaths or less by September. Thats a long way from the 500,000 he had on his first model, that's was used to scare us all into shutting to entire country down.
I think when its all said and done it'll end up being. 010 of 1% death rate.
No way to know till they, the cdc, does there testing and get hard numbers. Not a model done by a guy at some university that's basically an educated guess, that wasn't too good thus far.
[QUOTE=Mike454;4754989]Yes but we don't have the correct data.
I think when its all said and done it'll end up being. 010 of 1% death rate.
No way to know till they, the cdc, does there testing and get hard numbers. Not a model done by a guy at some university that's basically an educated guess, that wasn't too good thus far.[/QUOTE]FYI, The data source is the CDC's FluView Interactive, which lists data for the 50 states plus New York City.
Any serious attempt to put coronavirus deaths in context by comparing it to some other cause of death in a previous year must acknowledge the marked differences in the Covid-19 trend most notably, the rapid spike in deaths that is still underway, and the wide range of uncertainty about when it will peak, how high it will peak, and whether it will peak only once. As long as the pandemic is rapidly spreading, these comparisons will be fraught.
Perhaps a better way to state the danger posed by the coronavirus is just that we cannot easily compare it to any precedent in recent history.
[URL]https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html[/URL]
[QUOTE=Mike454;4754989]I think when its all said and done it'll end up being. 010 of 1% death rate[/QUOTE]As Georgia has a population of approximately 10.5 million, ". 01 of 1%" equals approximately 1050 people. We have lost 838 as of this writing with little sign of a let up. The Governor's efforts to open the economy early will only cause the death rate to increase, so I think your estimate is wildly optimistic.
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4755191]FYI, The data source is the CDC's FluView Interactive, which lists data for the 50 states plus New York City.
Any serious attempt to put coronavirus deaths in context by comparing it to some other cause of death in a previous year must acknowledge the marked differences in the Covid-19 trend most notably, the rapid spike in deaths that is still underway, and the wide range of uncertainty about when it will peak, how high it will peak, and whether it will peak only once. As long as the pandemic is rapidly spreading, these comparisons will be fraught.
Perhaps a better way to state the danger posed by the coronavirus is just that we cannot easily compare it to any precedent in recent history.
[URL]https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Well all I know is the virus isn't going anywhere, and the only reason we did the shutdown was to prepare the the hospitals for the surge, and to flatten the curve.
Staying inside forevermore until there is a vaccine is not even an option, so I agree with kemp 100%. A little common sense goes a long way.
Nobody knows for sure, but so faR OTHER THAN THE VERY OLD AND VULNERABLE, 99.9 % of the people that get it recover and most are with little or no complications.
Not 1 of the models have been right so far. So we might as well open things back up, before we have more deaths from people losing everything than the stupid sars2 virus causes anyways. remember the Great Depression 32% unemployment...how many people died because of that?
How many die for every 1% increase in unemployment? I think its a quite a few. its just silly to self inflict all this damage.
I don't know. I just trust what I see, more than the experts. All we can do is try to be smart, and everybody go back to work.if it spikes then he can always close back down.
When every liberal loses their mind over a governor looking out for his state by giving people the OPTION to open up and save THEIR business. Then we see what this is really all about. I think.
Sorry I guess this is somewhat relevant to this thread.
M454.
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4755191]FYI, The data source is the CDC's FluView Interactive, which lists data for the 50 states plus New York City.
Any serious attempt to put coronavirus deaths in context by comparing it to some other cause of death in a previous year must acknowledge the marked differences in the Covid-19 trend most notably, the rapid spike in deaths that is still underway, and the wide range of uncertainty about when it will peak, how high it will peak, and whether it will peak only once. As long as the pandemic is rapidly spreading, these comparisons will be fraught.
Perhaps a better way to state the danger posed by the coronavirus is just that we cannot easily compare it to any precedent in recent history.
[URL]https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html[/URL][/QUOTE]Here's a few factual numbers.
As of 4-22-2020.
State of Georgia population: approximately 10.7 million.
Number of dead from Covid 19 statewide in Georgia: 836.
[QUOTE=AaronHamlet;4754694]That's of confirmed cases. US testing going on now suggests 10-15% of all had China virus. If so, fatality rate down to flu level at around 0.2%. Italy 21,300 dead over age of sixty, 1,030 under age of sixty. Italy population at 60 million.
[/QUOTE]
Yep its going to end up a .1 to .2%.
[QUOTE=SgtSoros;4754711]Wrong! FYI, COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. Updated chart 4/21/2020.[/QUOTE]Wrong!
[QUOTE]These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.[/QUOTE[URL]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1[/URL]
It would put the mortality rate between 0. 01% and 0. 02%.
There's also reports (and autopsies) coming out showing this has been in the US longer than originally thought.
Strictly legit place with great massage ladies and manager said they would be opening May 1.
[QUOTE=Mike454;4755294]Well all I know is the virus isn't going anywhere, and the only reason we did the shutdown was to prepare the the hospitals for the surge, and to flatten the curve.
Staying inside forevermore until there is a vaccine is not even an option, so I agree with kemp 100%. A little common sense goes a long way.
Nobody knows for sure, but so faR OTHER THAN THE VERY OLD AND VULNERABLE, 99.9 % of the people that get it recover and most are with little or no complications.
Not 1 of the models have been right so far. So we might as well open things back up, before we have more deaths from people losing everything than the stupid sars2 virus causes anyways. remember the Great Depression 32% unemployment...how many people died because of that?
How many die for every 1% increase in unemployment? I think its a quite a few. its just silly to self inflict all this damage.
I don't know. I just trust what I see, more than the experts. All we can do is try to be smart, and everybody go back to work.if it spikes then he can always close back down.
When every liberal loses their mind over a governor looking out for his state by giving people the OPTION to open up and save THEIR business. Then we see what this is really all about. I think.
Sorry I guess this is somewhat relevant to this thread.
M454.[/QUOTE]Common sense is always relevant. Thank you very much.
[QUOTE=Oily123;4755306]Here's a few factual numbers.
As of 4-22-2020.
State of Georgia population: approximately 10.7 million.
Number of dead from Covid 19 statewide in Georgia: 836.[/QUOTE]And Dougherty county, Georgia has more China virus deaths than does Fulton county. Out of that statewide China virus death total, of those under 60 years old, only 6 are listed as healthy w / no serious existing preconditions, 23 listed as unknown exist preconditions and 75 listed as dying of or with China virus due to their serious preexisting, life threatening health problems.
As these APM's open, it's inevitable mongers and therapists will get infected. Some may show symptoms, some may not. I'm going to hang low for awhile to see how this plays out, but for those that go, if you feel you got infected, report it here. Help others avoid getting infected and spreading this even further.
[QUOTE=Mike454;4755308]Yep its going to end up a .1 to .2%.[/QUOTE]I am not as concerned about the death rate as I am about interacting with the healthcare system right now. The last thing I want to do in the next few weeks is spend time in a hospital where the staff is either over worked, under trained for this crisis or both.
[QUOTE=GorosDawg;4755468]I am not as concerned about the death rate as I am about interacting with the healthcare system right now. The last thing I want to do in the next few weeks is spend time in a hospital where the staff is either over worked, under trained for this crisis or both.[/QUOTE]I think the ladies are going to be quite cautious. I could see handies with all parties wearing masks. But I also think that people who are at high risk of a bad COVID outcome, should stay sheltered in place. At some point, we'll probably be able to identify people who are immune and they can start offering more services to the non-immune. (Services like hair cuts, of course).
I think Kemp is brave to try to re-open businesses and while it's not going to be risk free, people at risk know who they are and they need to stay quarantined. Everyone else, go out and start spending money because small businesses will not make it otherwise.
Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.
[QUOTE=AmpLovr;4755784]Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.[/QUOTE]The issue is that you're going to get it, regardless. It's not going away, and you can't quarantine for 18 months. Our best hope is to put it off for those at risk as long as possible (flatten the curve), and generate antibody pools from younger healthier people, who will get it, and survive to help those who get really sick. This bug is bad, no doubt, but it disproportionately hits older, sicker people. The rest of the population, not in that group, need to be out there working to improve things.
Whether you get in in an AMP or at Kroger, theres not a lot you can do outside of air seal yourself in place. That's not going to work for most people.
[QUOTE=AmpLovr;4755784]Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.[/QUOTE]I want to retire too but little one is too fucking active for me to retire. I looked at the GA stats and it seems like most of the fatalities are linked with some underlying problems. There is one death in Cobb county where I monger most of the time, the man was only 29 with no underlying health issues. It is tragic that so many people are dying but if any of us is over 60 or have some health issue then he should retire immediately. On the ohter hand, we can die in car wreck going to Kroger or publix, LOL.
[URL]https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report[/URL]
[QUOTE=AmpLovr;4755784]Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.[/QUOTE]Your fear is irrational, unfortunately. The scenario you describe is statistically infinitesimal. Real but infinitesimal. Less than 1%. But, they, the politicos with an agenda and the media who aids and abets them, have frightened you and too many others to believe that if you test positive it's a death sentence, which it overwhelmingly is not. But they have scared you and others to death so to you it is a lock that you are going to die if you test positive. If you test positive the chances of you dying the horrible death that you have described is extremely small unless you have an underlying health condition in which case you should not be out and about anyway. Do a Rip VanWinkle for a couple of years or even twenty years if you need to but please do not demand that the rest of us conform to your hysteria. Life is risk. Always has been and always will be. In this case the risk of horrible death, to repeat ad nauseum, is overwhelmingly small if you are an otherwise healthy individual. It is your fear that will kill us, not the virus.
[QUOTE=CobaltSoS;4755356]Wrong!
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
It would put the mortality rate between 0. 01% and 0. 02%.
There's also reports (and autopsies) coming out showing this has been in the US longer than originally thought.[/QUOTE]Here is the real problem with any modeling or statistics, how many people caught it and had little to no symptoms, stayed home and recovered and went about their business never seeing a medical pro so they are not even in the count. The other side of the coin is the CDC counting anyone who died WITH the virus as dying FROM the virus. That is about as stupid as I can think of. You have COVID and get into a car crash with a semi that severs your head from your shoulders but you are in the body county for COVID-19. So both sides here jacks up any method you choose to use to estimate it's lethality.
[QUOTE=WalterM;4755780]I think the ladies are going to be quite cautious. I could see handies with all parties wearing masks. But I also think that people who are at high risk of a bad COVID outcome, should stay sheltered in place. At some point, we'll probably be able to identify people who are immune and they can start offering more services to the non-immune. (Services like hair cuts, of course).
I think Kemp is brave to try to re-open businesses and while it's not going to be risk free, people at risk know who they are and they need to stay quarantined. Everyone else, go out and start spending money because small businesses will not make it otherwise.[/QUOTE]Another common sense approach. We need that. Enough of this hysterical, hair on fire, sky is falling lunacy. Those things are what will kill us all, not the virus. Thank you, WalterM.
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[b][u]EDITOR'S NOTE[/u]:[/b] [blue]This report was deleted because it contributed nothing of value and in fact constituted a complete waste of bandwidth.
The purpose of this Forum is to provide for the exchange if information between men on the subject of finding women for sex. Let's stick to the subject.[/blue]
[QUOTE=AmpLovr;4755784]Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.[/QUOTE]It's like 5 to 6 percent 47000÷840000'100. Is but we are.
High risk.
[QUOTE=CobaltSoS;4755356]These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
It would put the mortality rate between 0. 01% and 0. 02%.
[/QUOTE]Unfortunately, the Santa Clara study has been widely criticized for having serious methodology flaws. There are obviously many more people who have had Covid-19 than there are people who have tested positive for it and the mortality rate is far lower than that cited by the clown below. There have been approximately 11,000 Covid-19 deaths in New York City. Just think how many infections there would have to be to reach that number with the mortality rate you suggest.
Next time I visit Atlanta I'm going to pretend I'm parking at Adore or Spa 18 or any of the other parlors close to the CDC and roll down my window and see if I can pick up some better info.
[QUOTE=AmpLovr;4755784]Think it through guys. Say you start back and are lucky for a few weeks or even a few months. Then you catch it. Imagine you're one of the ones on a ventilator for 2 weeks drowning in your own fluid just knowing that you are going to die. You're probably going to live but how horrible is that. Or maybe even worse you give it to your mom or kids and they go through that ordeal. That's going to be hard to live with for the rest of your life. I'm retired till I get the vaccine. BTW, that. 1% is bullshit.
AMP.[/QUOTE]Yea, but chances are you will prob get it in your daily life, even without visiting AMPs, in the year or 2 it will take to Maybe come up with a vaccine.
The Sars H1 N1 Was how many years ago? And we Still don't have a vaccine.
Unless you are over 70 with 3-4 Co-morbidities, there is a 99. ? % chance you will recover or have mild symptoms.
And even with a vaccine, Ie flu shot, can still get the regular flu. I'd say this would prob be the same.
Who knows. Call we can do in mean time is do what each individual is comfortable with, and be smart.
[QUOTE=WalterM;4755804]The issue is that you're going to get it, regardless. It's not going away, and you can't quarantine for 18 months. Our best hope is to put it off for those at risk as long as possible (flatten the curve), and generate antibody pools from younger healthier people, who will get it, and survive to help those who get really sick. This bug is bad, no doubt, but it disproportionately hits older, sicker people. The rest of the population, not in that group, need to be out there working to improve things.
Whether you get in in an AMP or at Kroger, theres not a lot you can do outside of air seal yourself in place. That's not going to work for most people.[/QUOTE]Exactly,
Agree 100% Walter, doesn't matter, unless we all become "Bubble Boys", chances are we will all end up with it at some point.
M454.
[QUOTE=LuvThemTugs;4755386]Strictly legit place with great massage ladies and manager said they would be opening May 1.[/QUOTE]Yes, they are Great for legit, I visited on your recommendation, and I agree.
So glad they will be opening as well.
M454.
With all the serious talk in this thread, remember, you'll be able to get a happy ending soon! ;-p.
The governor said massage facilities can open tmro. I wonder of AMPs will reopen?
[QUOTE=WalterM;4755804]This bug is bad, no doubt, but it disproportionately hits older, sicker people. The rest of the population, not in that group, need to be out there working to improve things.
[/QUOTE]That's all you need to know. Those not in that group being out there is what weakens the virus.
[QUOTE=HighFlyer21;4756337]The governor said massage facilities can open tmro. I wonder of AMPs will reopen?[/QUOTE]Where have you been the last 4 days? That's all we've been talking about.
[QUOTE=Oldti;4756150]It's like 5 to 6 percent 47000840000'100. Is but we are.
High risk.[/QUOTE]High risk (emphasis being on the word "high") if you are in the elderly range with a compromised immune system or other underlying health conditions. For you and others to continually hammer away that this virus is an automatic death sentence is supremely irresponsible. We can and will protect the vulnerable AND get ourselves back to doing the work and business of this nation. I will never accept that we can only do one or the other, a completely false premise that is the most irresponsible of all.
[QUOTE=HighFlyer21;4756337]The governor said massage facilities can open tmro. I wonder of AMPs will reopen?[/QUOTE]Maybe you haven't been actively reading this thread, but several CAMPs / KAMPs have told me they don't plan to re-open on Friday. If they do, it'll be a last minute decision. Just call your favorite tomorrow and see what's up.
[QUOTE=HighFlyer21;4756337]The governor said massage facilities can open tmro. I wonder of AMPs will reopen?[/QUOTE]I know two that are going to be open.
[QUOTE=Bullett64;4615778]Be very careful in the Conyers / Covington area. All other MP's have been shut down. This one hasn't been open all that long and has already received more than one visit from LE. The area is not AMP friendly like Buford Highway.[/QUOTE]Place is closed for good. I hate living out here because you can't keep a place open if find any steady ladies.
I went down to the hot dog place in Peachtree Corners. This time I just peeked into the massage parlor to see what was going on. It seemed odd that there were so many cars parked in front of it. But, one of the girls waved me in and asked me if I wanted a session being of weak body I agreed to it. I got an hour for 60 bucks and paid an extra 10 for a table scrub. She gave a good massage and went right into the happy ending with out bargaining. I was going to pay 110 including the tip but she asked for 10 more. I thought it was odd that with no profile not even including a web site that his place would be busy. I saw three girls working there as well. How many were busy I can't tell. The place was large for a AMP. So it is interesting as to what was going on.
[QUOTE=Oldti;4757066]I know two that are going to be open.[/QUOTE]Which two?
[QUOTE=Runon99;4756181]Unfortunately, the Santa Clara study has been widely criticized for having serious methodology flaws. There are obviously many more people who have had Covid-19 than there are people who have tested positive for it and the mortality rate is far lower than that cited by the clown below. There have been approximately 11,000 Covid-19 deaths in New York City. Just think how many infections there would have to be to reach that number with the mortality rate you suggest.
Next time I visit Atlanta I'm going to pretend I'm parking at Adore or Spa 18 or any of the other parlors close to the CDC and roll down my window and see if I can pick up some better info.[/QUOTE]I ran into this article below if this study has any credible truth to it then the mortality rate is well below 1% in NY area. I hope they find a way to test everyone or anyone wanted to be tested. I bet lot of us will be relieved that they already have been exposed to it and survived.
[URL]https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-virus-deaths-top-15k-cuomo-expected-to-detail-plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/[/URL]
[QUOTE=HobbyMan51;4756913]High risk (emphasis being on the word "high") if you are in the elderly range with a compromised immune system or other underlying health conditions. For you and others to continually hammer away that this virus is an automatic death sentence is supremely irresponsible. We can and will protect the vulnerable AND get ourselves back to doing the work and business of this nation. I will never accept that we can only do one or the other, a completely false premise that is the most irresponsible of all.[/QUOTE]Well I'm going to see one of my gals.
For a TS and rub dinner and a kiss.
Drive down 92 think of heven.