Rants Raves and Stupid Shit in Seattle.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4784916]You were going on about your credentials. What are they, again? I seem to have missed what they were, and how they qualify you as a pandemic expert.

I suspect your ridiculous perspective on advanced degrees is because you don't have one. Sour grapes are always sad to see, and I'm sure you and your fellow bottle-washers do a lot of commiserating on how unfair it is and what bastards your leadership is with all those letters after their names. It appears what you're saying is that in biotech research they're hiring folks with a BS (no, not *your* BS) - and we both know that's simply not true. Unless, like you, they're washing bottles.

As for me, I am just a complete career failure. It's horrible. The money, the cars, the plane. Honest to God, I have no idea how I keep it together.

Still waitin' for that list of experts there, Moose. It appears that you've given up. It's been a hilarious trip: "all the experts" - one discredited expert - you.[/QUOTE]There are only guys here, no reason for you both to be chubbing up trying to show who has the bigger dick.

[QUOTE=Michael1967;4784988]There are only guys here, no reason for you both to be chubbing up trying to show who has the bigger dick.[/QUOTE][URL]https://youtu.be/yzI2SYpZSgI[/URL]

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4784916]You were going on about your credentials. What are they, again? I seem to have missed what they were, and how they qualify you as a pandemic expert.[/QUOTE]You pony up the $5 K into escrow, I'll do the same, and I'll put it all out there. That's the offer I made up front. The fact that you acknowledge you know nothing doesn't change that.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4784916]Still waitin' for that list of experts there, Moose. It appears that you've given up. It's been a hilarious trip: "all the experts" - one discredited expert - you.[/QUOTE]I gave you specifics about Ferguson, upon whom everything else was based, admitting his model wasn't even a Coronavirus model and reworking it. You apparently either can't understand it or are just ignoring it. The UW changed their model twice in three days at one point too; given that you're in a Seattle forum, not sure how you missed that one.

Feel free to continue. Now that I know you have, in addition to no reasoning or logical skills, an advanced degree demonstrating the disaster that some post-grad programs have become, I feel obligated to continue pushing back against your endless bullying.

Here's my contribution: The Bareback thread is 100 percent useless.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4785235]You pony up the $5 K into escrow, I'll do the same, and I'll put it all out there.[/QUOTE]You are absolutely precious. You want $5 K to post what your educational level is? I've never seen Golden Pussy Syndrome in a man before. Does that $5 K include kissing and BBFSCIP? Regardless, it's irrelevant. You're not an expert in global pandemics.

Honest to God, every time you post I think you can't possibly be funnier but you are. Everybody gets a Netflix special, you should really make the call.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4785235]I gave you specifics about Ferguson, upon whom everything else was based[/QUOTE]No, not the case on both counts. First, the model wasn't inaccurate. It simply refined as assumptions changed as they're supposed to. Further, the IMHE model primarily consumes the UW model which has indeed changed. Again, as the underlying assumptions and activities, such as shelter-in-place orders, changed. Saying a model is inaccurate at a particular point in time demonstrates a lack of understanding of concepts such as information velocity / volatility. The purpose of a model is to provide predictive guidance based on an algorithm, the assumptions and data underlying that algorithm change, and so it's refined and thus provides more accurate predictive guidance. I know nothing about pandemics, but I create and use these types of "big data" analytical models all the time in supply chain operations and manufacturing processes. These are the types of skills that make up a "useless" advanced degree.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4785235]I feel obligated to continue pushing back against your endless bullying.[/QUOTE]A [URL]www...are[/URL] you feeling bullied? Just by being asked to back up your statement? Hey, virtual man hug, bro. Just let it out. It's OK. I'll drop off; I didn't know I was hurting your feelers.

But. Still waiting' for that list of all the experts there, Moose.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4785724]You are absolutely precious. You want $5 K to post what your educational level is? I've never seen Golden Pussy Syndrome in a man before. Does that $5 K include kissing and BBFSCIP? Regardless, it's irrelevant. You're not an expert in global pandemics.[/QUOTE]Oh you are [I]so cute!!![/I] I set betting terms based on that we would both fully verify it. You bragged about all your cars, your airplane (I presume a '70's Cessna, at 1/3 the cost of a decent Harley, but it's not really relevant), etc. , so $5 K should be pocket change for you. Either bet or don't. But once you fold, you don't get to see the other cards. So ante up. I'll do the same. If I'm a liar, I'll have $5 K to loose.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4785724]No, not the case on both counts. First, the model wasn't inaccurate. It simply refined as assumptions changed as they're supposed to. [/QUOTE]That's ludicrous. He admitted he didn't even modify it from the old undocumented flu model. He didn't change it due to new data, but because it was called out as not even relevant and he couldn't justify it.

You don't seem to grasp where the line between the model (which is based on, and integrates, certain assumptions) and the inputs (essentially parameters.) The model includes values for how easily, in this case, it spreads, under what conditions, how serious, how long it's asymptomatic. Can it spread by insect, by tap water, by food. The inputs, the bits you can modify while keeping the model, are things like the actual weather, how much social distancing occurred, quality of medical care.

If you got the basics, such as how it spreads (e. G. It's an STD, not spread by kissing, or it's asymptomatic but contagious for days), those changes are a new model. Yes, you changed models due to data, but that's because your falsifiable hypothesis was falsified.

By your definition, polio and COVID-19 are the same model, just refined differently due to different data.

Honestly, if you can't even see how pathetic your justifications are, no data will satisfy you. As I said, you know rhetoric. And apparently nothing else.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]Either bet or don't[/QUOTE]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.

[URL=https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ]UMB Escrow Account 3368-22-18[/URL]

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]you don't get to see the other cards[/QUOTE]I already showed my cards. It would be trivial for you to do the same, but.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]I presume a '70's Cessna[/QUOTE]Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]By your definition, polio and COVID-19 are the same model, just refined differently due to different data.[/QUOTE]And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true. You can even purchase the model, or in the case here download it freely for academic use.

I think you're a little confused on the difference between data and the algorithm that provides the analytic view of that data.

For anyone that's actually interested on a good populist treatise on the model referenced, this is a good article: [URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6[/URL].

The key takeaways, as I noted, as are follows:

". that, in turn, requires information that can be only loosely estimated at the start of an epidemic".

". had the United States taken no action against the virus, it would have seen 2. 18 million deaths.

Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.[/QUOTE]That wasn't the term. The quote (the forum software changed the abbreviation for research and development, but beyond that) was:

[QUOTE=Rousse;4783478] I can demonstrate at least twice as much involvement in actual medical are and d (I. E. Leading to products used in a medical or case management environment) as you. [/QUOTE]Recast it to those terms and I'll escrow and show the cards. And, of course, take the money.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.[/QUOTE]The problem isn't the current model being used, although there are quite a few being used, so much as that they based their apocalyptic forecasts (which you still subscribe to) on the Imperial College model that wasn't even modeled on COVID, and they've moved the goal posts since then. This whole argument was (at least my my perspective) about the documented fact that the initial model was wrong. Even Ferguson admitted it wasn't even a COVID model. And then that the governments did not recalibrate based on discovering how far off it was / is.

Since you acknowledged that polio and COVID would, by your definition, be the same model -.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true.[/QUOTE]I think it's clear that there's no way we can come to agreement on this. You're simply not using the words the same way I am. Of course, the way you're using them, there is no "modelling" of infectious diseases, just twiddling with inputs. Although I am unclear on how you can say that there are different models and yet all the same. Very Christian of you. The Holy Trinity of models. All different and yet all one.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.[/QUOTE]I hadn't heard of those, but it looks and probably really is hella cool. I used to fly an acrobat-rated 152, but I agree that it lacks the cool factor.

When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.

It's Christen Eagle II. Named after the builder. Became the Aviat. You have one?

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.

[URL=https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ]UMB Escrow Account 3368-22-18[/URL]

I already showed my cards. It would be trivial for you to do the same, but.

Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.

And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true. You can even purchase the model, or in the case here download it freely for academic use.

I think you're a little confused on the difference between data and the algorithm that provides the analytic view of that data.

For anyone that's actually interested on a good populist treatise on the model referenced, this is a good article: [URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6[/URL].

The key takeaways, as I noted, as are follows:

". that, in turn, requires information that can be only loosely estimated at the start of an epidemic".

". had the United States taken no action against the virus, it would have seen 2. 18 million deaths.

Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]I second that.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]I just hope neither of them are married. If so, I feel sorry for their wives. Have to get the last word; have to be right. Sometimes you just have to let shit go.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?[/QUOTE]To vote, click on the UMB Escrow Account number link in my last post.

And I do mean my last post.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]WTF is this pissing contest even doing on this site? I am very familiar with Christian and Aviatt, but who cares? Jackson, put an end to this please.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?
I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]Given your anti-science posts, and the more recent developments in the news in the last few days absolutely destroying Ferguson's initial model, I doubt anyone would be surprised at your vote. Let us know when you're ready to vote for reality.

But I will vote that his plane is cool.