Rants Raves and Stupid Shit in Seattle.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4785724]You are absolutely precious. You want $5 K to post what your educational level is? I've never seen Golden Pussy Syndrome in a man before. Does that $5 K include kissing and BBFSCIP? Regardless, it's irrelevant. You're not an expert in global pandemics.[/QUOTE]Oh you are [I]so cute!!![/I] I set betting terms based on that we would both fully verify it. You bragged about all your cars, your airplane (I presume a '70's Cessna, at 1/3 the cost of a decent Harley, but it's not really relevant), etc. , so $5 K should be pocket change for you. Either bet or don't. But once you fold, you don't get to see the other cards. So ante up. I'll do the same. If I'm a liar, I'll have $5 K to loose.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4785724]No, not the case on both counts. First, the model wasn't inaccurate. It simply refined as assumptions changed as they're supposed to. [/QUOTE]That's ludicrous. He admitted he didn't even modify it from the old undocumented flu model. He didn't change it due to new data, but because it was called out as not even relevant and he couldn't justify it.

You don't seem to grasp where the line between the model (which is based on, and integrates, certain assumptions) and the inputs (essentially parameters.) The model includes values for how easily, in this case, it spreads, under what conditions, how serious, how long it's asymptomatic. Can it spread by insect, by tap water, by food. The inputs, the bits you can modify while keeping the model, are things like the actual weather, how much social distancing occurred, quality of medical care.

If you got the basics, such as how it spreads (e. G. It's an STD, not spread by kissing, or it's asymptomatic but contagious for days), those changes are a new model. Yes, you changed models due to data, but that's because your falsifiable hypothesis was falsified.

By your definition, polio and COVID-19 are the same model, just refined differently due to different data.

Honestly, if you can't even see how pathetic your justifications are, no data will satisfy you. As I said, you know rhetoric. And apparently nothing else.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]Either bet or don't[/QUOTE]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.

[URL=https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ]UMB Escrow Account 3368-22-18[/URL]

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]you don't get to see the other cards[/QUOTE]I already showed my cards. It would be trivial for you to do the same, but.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]I presume a '70's Cessna[/QUOTE]Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.

[QUOTE=Rousse;4786331]By your definition, polio and COVID-19 are the same model, just refined differently due to different data.[/QUOTE]And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true. You can even purchase the model, or in the case here download it freely for academic use.

I think you're a little confused on the difference between data and the algorithm that provides the analytic view of that data.

For anyone that's actually interested on a good populist treatise on the model referenced, this is a good article: [URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6[/URL].

The key takeaways, as I noted, as are follows:

". that, in turn, requires information that can be only loosely estimated at the start of an epidemic".

". had the United States taken no action against the virus, it would have seen 2. 18 million deaths.

Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.[/QUOTE]That wasn't the term. The quote (the forum software changed the abbreviation for research and development, but beyond that) was:

[QUOTE=Rousse;4783478] I can demonstrate at least twice as much involvement in actual medical are and d (I. E. Leading to products used in a medical or case management environment) as you. [/QUOTE]Recast it to those terms and I'll escrow and show the cards. And, of course, take the money.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.[/QUOTE]The problem isn't the current model being used, although there are quite a few being used, so much as that they based their apocalyptic forecasts (which you still subscribe to) on the Imperial College model that wasn't even modeled on COVID, and they've moved the goal posts since then. This whole argument was (at least my my perspective) about the documented fact that the initial model was wrong. Even Ferguson admitted it wasn't even a COVID model. And then that the governments did not recalibrate based on discovering how far off it was / is.

Since you acknowledged that polio and COVID would, by your definition, be the same model -.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true.[/QUOTE]I think it's clear that there's no way we can come to agreement on this. You're simply not using the words the same way I am. Of course, the way you're using them, there is no "modelling" of infectious diseases, just twiddling with inputs. Although I am unclear on how you can say that there are different models and yet all the same. Very Christian of you. The Holy Trinity of models. All different and yet all one.

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.[/QUOTE]I hadn't heard of those, but it looks and probably really is hella cool. I used to fly an acrobat-rated 152, but I agree that it lacks the cool factor.

When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.

It's Christen Eagle II. Named after the builder. Became the Aviat. You have one?

[QUOTE=WillShookSpear;4786529]I went ahead and contacted [URL=https://www.umb.com/institutional-banking/corporate-trust?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_campaign=escrow_services&utm_channel=paid_media&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3-629ta06QIVbx-tBh2NoA_EEAAYASAAEgImTfD_BwE]UMB Escrow Services[/URL] in Seattle and they were willing to do a double-blind escrow with a deterministic of specific performance, taking the $600 fee from the transfer. I paid the doc fees up front. When both accounts are funded to $5,000.00 USD with attached documents, they will disburse the full amount (minus fees, as noted) to the second party (you) if credentials are provided consistent with being a nationally-recognized expert on infectious disease. You can PM me solely for the purpose of gaining the account / access code for this account.

[URL=https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ]UMB Escrow Account 3368-22-18[/URL]

I already showed my cards. It would be trivial for you to do the same, but.

Straight tail Cessnas are cool like a GMC Pacer is cool. My Christian Eagle II was cheaper, but so much more fun.

And algorithm. Yes, that's exactly true. You can even purchase the model, or in the case here download it freely for academic use.

I think you're a little confused on the difference between data and the algorithm that provides the analytic view of that data.

For anyone that's actually interested on a good populist treatise on the model referenced, this is a good article: [URL]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6[/URL].

The key takeaways, as I noted, as are follows:

". that, in turn, requires information that can be only loosely estimated at the start of an epidemic".

". had the United States taken no action against the virus, it would have seen 2. 18 million deaths.

Again, the referenced model *is not* the one being used. The IHME model has the same constraints, but continues to improve as more data is available.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]I second that.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]I just hope neither of them are married. If so, I feel sorry for their wives. Have to get the last word; have to be right. Sometimes you just have to let shit go.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?[/QUOTE]To vote, click on the UMB Escrow Account number link in my last post.

And I do mean my last post.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?

I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]WTF is this pissing contest even doing on this site? I am very familiar with Christian and Aviatt, but who cares? Jackson, put an end to this please.

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4787196]When do we vote for a winner, so this ridiculous contest can end?
I vote for WillShookSpear.[/QUOTE]Given your anti-science posts, and the more recent developments in the news in the last few days absolutely destroying Ferguson's initial model, I doubt anyone would be surprised at your vote. Let us know when you're ready to vote for reality.

But I will vote that his plane is cool.

[QUOTE=Michael1967;4787685]I just hope neither of them are married. If so, I feel sorry for their wives. Have to get the last word; have to be right. Sometimes you just have to let shit go.[/QUOTE]Was married. Not anymore. But Michael1967 speaks the truth: [I]sometimes you just have to let shit go.[/I].

Is anyone else just sick of hoe behavior? I mean like when you can't meet them at one of the times they offered, they accuse you of something. Yet they have zero issue of making you wait a half hour or longer. Or when you let them know you will be five minutes late you get accused of wasting their time. I pay in a very specific way to avoid any entanglements at home. I just was verbally assaulted for my pay methods not matching their ability to receive. Oh and they responded 4 fucking days later. I DON'T GIVE A SHIT. JUST SAY THAT DOESN'T WORK AND I'll HAPPILY MOVE. Maybe I'll just see a regular. It's insane and inane. I think I need a break.

[QUOTE=Jimmysixxx7;4796338]Is anyone else just sick of hoe behavior? I mean like when you can't meet them at one of the times they offered, they accuse you of something. Yet they have zero issue of making you wait a half hour or longer. Or when you let them know you will be five minutes late you get accused of wasting their time. I pay in a very specific way to avoid any entanglements at home. I just was verbally assaulted for my pay methods not matching their ability to receive. Oh and they responded 4 fucking days later. I DON'T GIVE A SHIT. JUST SAY THAT DOESN'T WORK AND I'll HAPPILY MOVE. Maybe I'll just see a regular. It's insane and inane. I think I need a break.[/QUOTE]I think many guys get too over invested in this. They find someone that "have" to fuck and then think if they miss out that their life will be over. I think at some point they forget the fact that they have the money and there are literally millions of women that would fuck them for that money. The women on that other site think they are the only game in town, but seriously, they are small fish in a big pond. If you are willing to spend the money and willing to be creative you should always be able to find someone to fuck you for money.

If someone doesn't like the way you pay, who cares? There's a million others that will happily take your payment method. If someone can't be on time, then leave and find someone that will be on time. You choose who you spend your money on, don't let them convince you that they are the only person in town selling their ass.

[QUOTE=Michael1967;4796388]I think many guys get too over invested in this. They find someone that "have" to fuck and then think if they miss out that their life will be over. I think at some point they forget the fact that they have the money and there are literally millions of women that would fuck them for that money. The women on that other site think they are the only game in town, but seriously, they are small fish in a big pond. If you are willing to spend the money and willing to be creative you should always be able to find someone to fuck you for money.

If someone doesn't like the way you pay, who cares? There's a million others that will happily take your payment method. If someone can't be on time, then leave and find someone that will be on time. You choose who you spend your money on, don't let them convince you that they are the only person in town selling their ass.[/QUOTE]I completely agree. Don't get caught up in the bs. So many options, even outside of SBs, MPs, and fetlife. Honestly, I look forward to work trips because it reminds me of the options and varieties out there. Once flights reopen, Mexico, Cali, Colorado, and Texas.

[QUOTE=Michael1967;4796388]I think many guys get too over invested in this. They find someone that "have" to fuck and then think if they miss out that their life will be over. I think at some point they forget the fact that they have the money and there are literally millions of women that would fuck them for that money. The women on that other site think they are the only game in town, but seriously, they are small fish in a big pond. If you are willing to spend the money and willing to be creative you should always be able to find someone to fuck you for money.

If someone doesn't like the way you pay, who cares? There's a million others that will happily take your payment method. If someone can't be on time, then leave and find someone that will be on time. You choose who you spend your money on, don't let them convince you that they are the only person in town selling their ass.[/QUOTE]Oh I completely agree. I have regulars I'm happy with. It's fun to expand the pool. It's just lately I've run into a series of annoying situations, like leaving after 15 minutes to be threatened with reporting my number bla bla bla. Then the payment thing. It's just been weird. I don't think anyone is able once in a lifetime experience.

Being from the "other" Washington, I'm curious if there are / were any consenting adult activity that was based on the area now know as CHAZ? If so, have they been allowed to continue operating? No motivation other than curiosity.

[QUOTE=Max#01;4838264]Being from the "other" Washington, I'm curious if there are / were any consenting adult activity that was based on the area now know as CHAZ? If so, have they been allowed to continue operating? No motivation other than curiosity.[/QUOTE]There were no businesses forced to stop operating in CHOP. In fact, most small businesses are doing well. It's like a big art festival.

To the other part of your question: No, I don't believe there were any illicit massage parlors within the CHOP boundaries (but I could be wrong).

[QUOTE=Max#01;4838264]Being from the "other" Washington, I'm curious if there are / were any consenting adult activity that was based on the area now know as CHAZ? If so, have they been allowed to continue operating? No motivation other than curiosity.[/QUOTE]At mrandyngo has some good reporting on Twitter.

[QUOTE=MickRichards;4840555]At mrandyngo has some good reporting on Twitter.[/QUOTE]He is only interested in portraying himself as a victim for his own financial gain. He incites violence and is a big part of the misinformation problem we have in the country right now.

I really don't want to talk politics on this board, but he's straight up using this for his own personal gains.

[QUOTE=MassageMeow;4841932]He is only interested in portraying himself as a victim for his own financial gain. He incites violence and is a big part of the misinformation problem we have in the country right now.

I really don't want to talk politics on this board, but he's straight up using this for his own personal gains.[/QUOTE]It is not what he is saying. It is more who he is talking about that everyone should see.

Yikes!

[QUOTE=Facials;4842020]It is not what he is saying. It is more who he is talking about that everyone should see.

Yikes![/QUOTE][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274295128794869760?cxt=HHwWgMChreGqmq8jAAAA[/URL]

[QUOTE=Facials;4842034][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274295128794869760?cxt=HHwWgMChreGqmq8jAAAA[/URL][/QUOTE][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274299029438951424[/URL]

[QUOTE=Efurufe;4838601]There were no businesses forced to stop operating in CHOP. In fact, most small businesses are doing well. It's like a big art festival.[/QUOTE]Cite please. Everything I've seen in the news is that businesses inside CHOP / CHAZ have essentially zero income right now, and because deliveries can't reach them, they can't replenish rotted stock (e. G. Lettuce, tomatoes, meat.).

[QUOTE=Facials;4842034][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274295128794869760?cxt=HHwWgMChreGqmq8jAAAA[/URL][/QUOTE]Pretty sure this dangerous, armed militant is also a trans provider on TNA lmao.

[QUOTE=MiniMiniBag;4842106]Pretty sure this dangerous, armed militant is also a trans provider on TNA lmao.[/QUOTE][URL]https://www.tnaboard.com/member.php?263744-Jaymiejameson[/URL]

Also posts on Fetlife as JaymieJameson?

[QUOTE=Diver6390;4843635][URL]https://www.tnaboard.com/member.php?263744-Jaymiejameson[/URL]

Also posts on Fetlife as JaymieJameson?[/QUOTE]She / he whatever is disgusting.

[QUOTE=Diver6390;4843635][URL]https://www.tnaboard.com/member.php?263744-Jaymiejameson[/URL]

Also posts on Fetlife as JaymieJameson?[/QUOTE]Hahaha, yeah, I thought those mugshots look familiar.

Wrong thread. Sorry

[QUOTE=Facials;4842034][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274295128794869760?cxt=HHwWgMChreGqmq8jAAAA[/URL][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=MiniMiniBag;4842106]Pretty sure this dangerous, armed militant is also a trans provider on TNA lmao[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Diver6390;4843635][URL]https://www.tnaboard.com/member.php?263744-Jaymiejameson[/URL]

Also posts on Fetlife as JaymieJameson?[/QUOTE]Armed militant does not look like Jaymie. But I could be wrong. Having said that. Do a search here for Jaymie and you will find a link to her pornhub site where she gets BB Greek with creampie from this really old biker dude that can hardly keep his erection. I found the video a little funny actually.

[QUOTE=DrtyHarry;4843875]Armed militant does not look like Jaymie. But I could be wrong. Having said that. Do a search here for Jaymie and you will find a link to her pornhub site where she gets BB Greek with creampie from this really old biker dude that can hardly keep his erection. I found the video a little funny actually[/QUOTE]I just threw up in my mouth.

FYI. That is JJ.

Avoid.

[QUOTE=DrtyHarry;4843875]Armed militant does not look like Jaymie. But I could be wrong. Having said that. Do a search here for Jaymie and you will find a link to her pornhub site where she gets BB Greek with creampie from this really old biker dude that can hardly keep his erection. I found the video a little funny actually[/QUOTE][URL]https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1274299029438951424[/URL]

I think this is the tweet I originally meant to link. You can definitely tell it is.

Just ranting, why'all.

A few years ago (3-5), I feel like TNA had some attractive women and decent, not great, but decent prices. At least I'm the few years that I've been there. Lately, I'm having trouble seeing the difference between stg, adultlook, and the board since most of the women are either upcharging you to hell for safety only services so extreme you might as well be masterbating next door or so unappealing and self righteous that you get thrown off a cliff for questioning age, weight, or smell.

Even some of the women who I thought were cool are slowly losing their minds and my respect.

There is like 5 women on that board that still seem worthwhile and three of them are in Portland. Pretty much the only reason I keep an account.

Damn. I live in portland and think Seattle scene is way better (Riley star, Haillie young, etc). Mind saying which 3 portland ladies keep you on TNA?

[QUOTE=SAmazing;4853289]Just ranting, why'all.

A few years ago (3-5), I feel like TNA had some attractive women and decent, not great, but decent prices. At least I'm the few years that I've been there. Lately, I'm having trouble seeing the difference between stg, adultlook, and the board since most of the women are either upcharging you to hell for safety only services so extreme you might as well be masterbating next door or so unappealing and self righteous that you get thrown off a cliff for questioning age, weight, or smell.

Even some of the women who I thought were cool are slowly losing their minds and my respect.

There is like 5 women on that board that still seem worthwhile and three of them are in Portland. Pretty much the only reason I keep an account.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=SAmazing;4853289]Just ranting, why'all.

A few years ago (3-5), I feel like TNA had some attractive women and decent, not great, but decent prices. At least I'm the few years that I've been there. Lately, I'm having trouble seeing the difference between stg, adultlook, and the board since most of the women are either upcharging you to hell for safety only services so extreme you might as well be masterbating next door or so unappealing and self righteous that you get thrown off a cliff for questioning age, weight, or smell.

Even some of the women who I thought were cool are slowly losing their minds and my respect.

There is like 5 women on that board that still seem worthwhile and three of them are in Portland. Pretty much the only reason I keep an account.[/QUOTE]There are far far too many that are really overweight, or severely grossly tatted up in an ugly way, or just simply not worth it for all the bs they want you to do as far as communication and procedures. I seriously would rather just get high at home and watch some porn I like than deal with it and I have the cash for them too.

[QUOTE=SeattleMassage;4854833]There are far far too many that are really overweight, or severely grossly tatted up in an ugly way, or just simply not worth it for all the bs they want you to do as far as communication and procedures. I seriously would rather just get high at home and watch some porn I like than deal with it and I have the cash for them too.[/QUOTE]Yeah, I said that once and now all my green beans are gone and got a few alerts. Meh. Secret and FetLife are also better and cheaper. Last chick I got with off of there seemed good, but it ended with upcharges, rides, tip requests, and terrible communication.

[QUOTE=SeattleMassage;4854833]There are far far too many that are really overweight, or severely grossly tatted up in an ugly way, or just simply not worth it for all the bs they want you to do as far as communication and procedures. I seriously would rather just get high at home and watch some porn I like than deal with it and I have the cash for them too.[/QUOTE]I agree. If they were hot, they now are washed up and bitter that they are a late 30's has been sex worker that has never held a job.

Yep double post.

So has anyone been to the royal since they open back up? It seemed to be all the rage before fake19 shutdown.

Anyone know the line up.

[QUOTE=SAmazing;4853289]Just ranting, why'all.

A few years ago (3-5), I feel like TNA had some attractive women and decent, not great, but decent prices. At least I'm the few years that I've been there. Lately, I'm having trouble seeing the difference between stg, adultlook, and the board since most of the women are either upcharging you to hell for safety only services so extreme you might as well be masterbating next door or so unappealing and self righteous that you get thrown off a cliff for questioning age, weight, or smell.

Even some of the women who I thought were cool are slowly losing their minds and my respect.

There is like 5 women on that board that still seem worthwhile and three of them are in Portland. Pretty much the only reason I keep an account.[/QUOTE]Yes, I think TNA is on it's one millionth, "why no AA" thread.

I can log in on my phone still, but not on my computer. Takes me to a page that says "failed to open page. " Any ideas?

[QUOTE=GruveMan;4911796]I can log in on my phone still, but not on my computer. Takes me to a page that says "failed to open page. " Any ideas?[/QUOTE]Try a different browser?