General Reports

**LoneWolf3** · 03-26-20 05:44

Originally Posted by SandbergFan [View Original Post]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

**MTWilliams911** · 03-26-20 00:38

Originally Posted by SandbergFan [View Original Post]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

With an undergrad degree in math with a minor in French from Vanderbilt, Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa, Ph. D. From McGill in Montreal and MD from Johns Hopkins, I am glad that you can straighten me out in math and epidemiology. Thank you for correcting me as I obviously do not have a clue.

**SandbergFan** · 03-26-20 00:07

Originally Posted by Sexmoron [View Original Post]

I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Admittedly, the numbers were from about a week or so ago and in my hurry today I did not update them as I should have. Thank you for providing the updated numbers.

**RluffWd** · 03-25-20 22:20

Originally Posted by SandbergFan [View Original Post]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

This calculation depends on the CFR being around 7%. That is the number reported for Italy, but the demographics there are very different, with a higher proportion of elderly. In other countries the CFR is much lower. Its too early to tell what it will be in the US, in part because testing isn't fully operational yet. As someone once said, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. Stay healthy.

**Sexmoron** · 03-25-20 19:33

Originally Posted by SandbergFan [View Original Post]

The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

**ItsAllFun57** · 03-25-20 10:04

As much as I dread getting my pandemic info from this site your explanation was perfect and welcoming. Be safe and again thank you!

Originally Posted by SandbergFan [View Original Post]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

**SandbergFan** · 03-25-20 09:29

Originally Posted by MTWilliams911 [View Original Post]

I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

**Daneau** · 03-25-20 02:45

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**KeithThomas502** · 03-25-20 00:24

The flu kills more but COVID-19 is that there is no cure for it.

So yeah flu kills more but this is more deadly and not preventable and people don't get flu and are carriers with asymptomatic like Corona. Escorts could be carriers and you now have it.

Originally Posted by MTWilliams911 [View Original Post]

I am writing this from Atlanta at a secure faculty with three letters. 60,000 died in a bad year from regular influenza. If 120 k or 180 k die from this it is both sad and tragic. However it is not the end of civilization. Panic is absurd.

There is a one minute blood test for point of care rapid screening being validated this week. That is a game changer. There are IgG antibody therapies rolling out soon that will provide temporary immunity for several months. "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" for those old enough to know the children's tale! The sky is not falling. Be smart. Wash your hands. If you are over 60 stay at home.

**Kingster** · 03-24-20 17:13

Originally Posted by Kingster [View Original Post]

Surprised more of the old school favorites haven't started posting yet. I know a lot of them were in the service industry.

Talked to a UTR I know. One of the issues is that most of them have kids and now don't have anyone to watch them. There are a ton of girls that are UTR that would be available but can't cause they don't have sitters.

Where are the old school girls like Star, Bailey, and the rest? Hell I’d pay a finders fee if one of you hooked me up with Bailey lol

**Daneau** · 03-24-20 16:46

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**DBrannigan** · 03-22-20 10:38

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...x-guidance.pdf

**Ol Muff Diver** · 03-21-20 08:58

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XBz...J_IulXntgriXRg

**EasyLivin** · 03-21-20 07:46

Fear mongering is getting worse by each day but you have to understand some people can't emotionally deal with these types of things very well.

**MTWilliams911** · 03-21-20 07:25

Originally Posted by DieselBoy502 [View Original Post]

You mean the same 3 letter faculty (sic) that sent out a load of faulty test kits to public health authorities, then caused a 3 week delay in testing while they produced more reagent? The same one that wouldn't allow testing in Seattle of samples? (which were tested anyway and discovered to be positive, but then they weren't allowed to report).

There have been tests available in other countries for over a month which give results in hours not days. Great that there are advances being made but the overall US response to this threat is seriously lagging.

Additionally, there was literally no panic in anything I said. I was matter of fact, and provided sources for my assertions that COVID-19 will be world changing. I said nothing about anarchy or chaos, only that current models show potential for millions of Americans dying if suppression is not successful. College kids are still partying on the beaches in Florida, and the spread is accelerating rapidly. Current mortality rate in Italy is 8. 3%. They have surpassed China in total mortality as of today. Looking at the incubation periods the spread is possibly past the point of containment in the US. California currently projects more than half of their population will be infected within 8 weeks.

Yes wash you hands. Yes practice social distancing. Yes limit travel and contact where possible. But also understand that the same 3 letter org you claim to be part of had already screwed the pooch several times. It's work is also undermined by an idiot in chief who is both a pathological liar and a pathogen himself.

Now if you aren't full of shite and you actually do work at or with the CDC, haven't you got better things to be doing than telling me to stfu? If you don't then we are well and truly fucked.

Source:

Nope. I do not work for or with the inept bunch at the CDC. Just here on business. It is a clusterfuck here. I just have more data than most as I am here in the middle of this shitshow getting information in real time. There are rapid diagnostics and therapeutic antibodies inbound. I do a lot of waiting for the next meeting. So yes, time to kill.