General Reports

[MTWilliams911]

I will take the under.

There is a new fingerstick blood test coming within a week maybe two. Results in one minute. Not only will it tell you if you have a current infection or not, it will also tell you if you have had the infection previously and now have a certain level of host immunity. This is going to change the dynamics completely.

My new prediction is less than 80,000 deaths based on this device.

[SteadyOn]

Anyone having trouble viewing ads. I tried two different devices, no luck. Thanks.

I usually browse escortbabylon.net and escort fish. Also just checked skip the games. No problems. But I have noticed fake ads on EB have dropped dramatically. Maybe scammers don't have good hygiene?

[LongTimeLurk]

Consider tipping big if you're still seeing someone. Consider making survival donations to your favorites even if you're not. A lot of really nice providers are trying to keep their rooms and not go homeless right now. It's bad.

If we don't take care of them now, expect to see the quality of providers crash in the near future.

I strongly disagree. These girls run through a lot of money. Those living in hotel rooms and don't have enough money for the next days fee is using the money for something other than survival. As far as the providers in Louisville there are not that many of quality that I have seen as far as the escorts (streetwalkers with a phone and a room) goes. It might do justice to let them starve out and the quality comes back. The street walkers on Ormbsy / Dixie hwy before 2015 or so is about the quality of a lot of women who are posting as escorts now days.

[AgainLLook]

Anyone having trouble viewing ads. I tried two different devices, no luck. Thanks.

[DrRyuhou]

Consider tipping big if you're still seeing someone. Consider making survival donations to your favorites even if you're not. A lot of really nice providers are trying to keep their rooms and not go homeless right now. It's bad.

If we don't take care of them now, expect to see the quality of providers crash in the near future.

[Sexmoron]

Admittedly, the numbers were from about a week or so ago and in my hurry today I did not update them as I should have. Thank you for providing the updated numbers.

That's understood. Interesting though, yesterday the number was 65285. Today it is 83,507.

[Bustin A Nut]

3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

I'm going under 500 k.

[SandbergFan]

3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

3 million is how many Americans die a year (roughly) from all causes put together, disease, accidents, murder, and anything else you can think of. Granted it's not exactly 3 million, but that's a pretty good estimate.

As for your 500k question, lets hope it is under, thats the point of quarantineS, stay at home orders, etc. That would mean it worked.

[MTWilliams911]

3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

I will take the under.

[LoneWolf3]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

3 million dead Americans? I'll take the under on that bet.

[MTWilliams911]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.

With an undergrad degree in math with a minor in French from Vanderbilt, Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa, Ph. D. From McGill in Montreal and MD from Johns Hopkins, I am glad that you can straighten me out in math and epidemiology. Thank you for correcting me as I obviously do not have a clue.

[SandbergFan]

I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Admittedly, the numbers were from about a week or so ago and in my hurry today I did not update them as I should have. Thank you for providing the updated numbers.

[RluffWd]

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

This calculation depends on the CFR being around 7%. That is the number reported for Italy, but the demographics there are very different, with a higher proportion of elderly. In other countries the CFR is much lower. Its too early to tell what it will be in the US, in part because testing isn't fully operational yet. As someone once said, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. Stay healthy.

[Sexmoron]

The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

I don't mean to cause a dispute with you, but the John Hopkins University Covid-19 map states that there are currently 65,285 cases in the US, (up from 57,000+ a few days ago), and 926 deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[ItsAllFun57]

As much as I dread getting my pandemic info from this site your explanation was perfect and welcoming. Be safe and again thank you!

A lot of people clearly do not understand logarithmic math (exponential growth) or epidemiology, which is OK since it's hard, so let me explain it. People post true (but utterly irrelevant) things like "45 M americans got the flu last year and 61,000 of them died" to say how COVID-19 isn't even as bad as the regular flu, and even though they are comparing apples to oranges (and indeed, last year's crop of apples to this year's crop of oranges), I'll use their numbers for comparison. If 45 M Americans got COVID-19 this year as happened with the regular flu last year, at the current Case Fatality Rate (7% actual CFR), that would mean over 3 M dead Americans. Not 61 thousand. 3 million. But because COVID-19 has a higher transmission rate (2 x higher), if it became as endemic (widespread) as the flu, 45 M Americans wouldn't get it, 90 M would. That means more than 6 M would be dead. Only 3 M Americans die each year from all causes put together. Yes, old age, disease, murder, accidents. Everything.

These people are looking at last year's Daytona 500 race results and saying that last year's winner will win again because they are also racing this year. Except they are still driving a 35 HP Herbie the Love Bug, and COVID-19 is a world record setting Hennessey Venom with 1,244 HP. The race has just started, but COVID-19 is already half a lap ahead of Herbie. Halfway through the year, it will be, unfortunately, more than a hundred miles in the lead. The number of cases of COVID-19 doubles about every 6 days. Right now it's around 1,500 (known) in the US. That means that in 6 days it should be about 3,000. Another 6 days, 6,000, etc. In a month, 48,000. In 2 months, 1. 5 M. In 3 months, 48 M infected. More than the flu last year, and with 50 times as many deaths. Unless we stop it.

Right now we have no vaccine. All we have are our wits. Wash your hands, don't touch people, don't touch your face, don't touch door handles or elevator buttons or cash. All good advice. Stay away from crowds, and cough and sneeze into your elbow. You're not just protecting yourself, since you won't know you have it for 5-14 days after you get it yourself. If we all stay home and watch TV for a month or two, we can let the CDC isolate the existing cases and get rid of it. If we blow it off and keep gathering and traveling, it won't get any better. Don't panic, just enjoy your staycation and call your parents. They are at more risk than you are. And be careful out there.