General Reports

[MTWilliams911]

Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the other people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is not primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to slow the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits next year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you will get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?

No one knows how many have been infected with little to no illness. Therefore, there is no way to tell the true rate without the data. Head of Infectious Disease at Vanderbilt suspects that it could be as low 0. 2% mortality.

Here is the bet. Total US deaths less than 100,000. Want the bet?

One hour with the provider of my choice when you lose?

[Catlikr]

Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the other people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is not primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to slow the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits next year.

Even with the steps being taken by the govt to slow or stop the spread of this virus. There are two groups, according to a health professional I spoke with today that are totally unregulated and will continue to spread this virus throughout the population even of those they have no direct contact with and that is the homeless and sex workers especially SW's. She told me that they should be a large focus by the govt.

[Zomby]

Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.

Citing a 2% mortality rate is a little misleading. The danger from this virus isn't the disease itself. It's the fact that there is virtually no immunity to it in the human population, so it has the potential to spread far, far faster than the flu to which it's so often, and inappropriately, compared. Some experts are predicting a 30-50% (some are even estimating 80-90%) infection rate by the time things are all said and done. Even that low end 30% infection rate is almost 100,000,000 million people in the USA. Of course, not all of those will be sick enough to require a hospital stay, but a significant portion will, and the nature of this particular disease is such that the ones who are hospitalized will need ventilators.

Can you imagine the effect on our medical system if even half that, fifty million extra people, needed treatment within a month or two of each other? Not to mention all the other people who'll need care that would even if the virus never happened, accidents, heart attacks, etc. Look at Italy if you can't imagine that. There aren't enough beds, doctors, nurses, or equipment to deal with that many people at once, and if Italy is any indication, some hard, and heartbreaking, choices will be made.

So this isolation strategy is not primarily to stop the spread of the disease, that's going to be damned near impossible. No, it's to slow the spread so that doctors actually have a chance to treat and save more people, and researchers have time to get a vaccine developed and safety tested for when this hits next year.

So stay home, even if you don't have it. It's likely that you will get it at some point, and everyone isolating makes it that much more likely that more people will survive.

Oh, and about that "nothing to get excited about" 2%, if the low end 30% infection rate holds, that's still almost 2,000,000 people dead. Applied to Kentucky, that's about 25,000 people dead. Nothing exciting there, eh?

[Kingster]

I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.

Surprised more of the old school favorites haven't started posting yet. I know a lot of them were in the service industry.

[DrRyuhou]

I'm not seeing anyone at all anymore, picking up a nasty virus is not my idea of a good time, and besides I can get it for free if I really need to get my rocks off that way.

I am reaching out to my favorites to see if they need any donation help due to reduced traffic, but probably won't be back into visiting anyone until April or May.

[BDinkie]

No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?

Covid19 deaths are hovering around 2%, actually a little less. Nothing to get excited about, unless you are one of the unlucky ones.

[MTWilliams911]

I think there's some math there that you're missing guy. The fatality rate those numbers suggest. Covid looks to have a mortality rate of about 4%, around 15% with the elderly and infirm. Flu on the other hand has a mortality rate of. 05%. You're throwing around numbers like if only 40,000 die you're assuming only 100,000 will get sick. But this disease seems to be as transmissible as flu if not more so. So let's assume we'll see the same number of cases as flu, 34 million. In that case we're looking at 1,360,000 dead. Now let's imagien worst case scenario, the whole country catches it. With a population of 300 million you're looking at 12 million dead. And now to put all that in perspective let's compare with how many soldiers we lost in WW2, 417,000. This has the potential to be a disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since the Spanish flu. Obviously the last thing we want to do is panic. That helps no one, but to dismiss this as nothing would be a grave mistake.

No one said to dismiss this. Just do the math. Likely mortality rate od Covid-19 is close to 1% when all the data is in. That is still far beyond regular influenza. If 120 million people get it then 1. 2 million would die. Almost all elderly. That is tragic but not the end of civilization. Let's make a bet. I bet total Covid-19 deaths less than 100,000 this year in USA. That is versus 60,000 in a bad flu season. So 100,000 would be bad. Again not the end of civilization. If 100,000 or less you buy me the provider of my choice in Lville for an hour. If more I buy you the same. Any takers?

[GotaHavit]

If you're still mongering after 80 there's not much that's going to kill you!

I was out and about yesterday and could have picked up 3 different tricks. But my better judgement took over. These girls on that candy and what lord else they might be carrying around. Have weakened immune systems already due to the heavy candy use. And they are not discriminatory of whom they service. I got too much at stake at home to be bringing back the C-19. So I've decided to take a serious break until they get a handle on this. Mongers be safe and smart pussy ain't going nowhere.

[Member #6042]

Italy is different mostly in that it got infected sooner. US is on the same trajectory (although maybe Louisville will get lucky) . Look at the graph about halfway down this page.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...two-weeks.html

Also, I'm surprised at how many of you are quoting low fatality rates as a reason not to change behaviors. Yes you will probably survive but that may involve a trip to an ICU with acute respiratory distress. STDs have extremely low fatality rates due to modern medicines but we still take precautions before embracing the human Petri dishes we call sex workers.

Are you seriously using the Daily Mail as your source? At least use a US source like the National Enquirer for god sakes!

[Rodrian]

Math.

USA. 34 million flu cases and 20,000 deaths.

USA. Coronavirus known 550 cases and 26 deaths.

I think there's some math there that you're missing guy. The fatality rate those numbers suggest. Covid looks to have a mortality rate of about 4%, around 15% with the elderly and infirm. Flu on the other hand has a mortality rate of. 05%. You're throwing around numbers like if only 40,000 die you're assuming only 100,000 will get sick. But this disease seems to be as transmissible as flu if not more so. So let's assume we'll see the same number of cases as flu, 34 million. In that case we're looking at 1,360,000 dead. Now let's imagien worst case scenario, the whole country catches it. With a population of 300 million you're looking at 12 million dead. And now to put all that in perspective let's compare with how many soldiers we lost in WW2, 417,000. This has the potential to be a disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since the Spanish flu. Obviously the last thing we want to do is panic. That helps no one, but to dismiss this as nothing would be a grave mistake.

[Catlikr]

Read closer. Not once did anyone say do not change behaviors.

Perspective and Math.

If 40,000 people die from Covid-19 it will be a 60,000 death year from viruses. Not far from recent numbers!

The point is to take precautions especially if you are over 60. However, do not shut down the economy and wet your pants when the math shows that 40,000 coronavirus deaths plus 20,000 flu deaths are not that far off recent annual flu deaths (60,000 in 2018). Panic is silly. Informed and reasoned reaction depending on your age is what is called for. Zero deaths under 10 years old for example. The most at risk group by far is over 80. If you are mongering over 80 you might need to retire until this passes, probably this summer.

People die. Lots every year from viruses.

If you're still mongering after 80 there's not much that's going to kill you!

[MTWilliams911]

Italy is different mostly in that it got infected sooner. US is on the same trajectory (although maybe Louisville will get lucky) . Look at the graph about halfway down this page.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...two-weeks.html

Also, I'm surprised at how many of you are quoting low fatality rates as a reason not to change behaviors. Yes you will probably survive but that may involve a trip to an ICU with acute respiratory distress. STDs have extremely low fatality rates due to modern medicines but we still take precautions before embracing the human Petri dishes we call sex workers.

Read closer. Not once did anyone say do not change behaviors.

Perspective and Math.

If 40,000 people die from Covid-19 it will be a 60,000 death year from viruses. Not far from recent numbers!

The point is to take precautions especially if you are over 60. However, do not shut down the economy and wet your pants when the math shows that 40,000 coronavirus deaths plus 20,000 flu deaths are not that far off recent annual flu deaths (60,000 in 2018). Panic is silly. Informed and reasoned reaction depending on your age is what is called for. Zero deaths under 10 years old for example. The most at risk group by far is over 80. If you are mongering over 80 you might need to retire until this passes, probably this summer.

People die. Lots every year from viruses.

[Chocophile]

It's a completely different culture than in the US. Their sanitation is different, the medical care and hospitals are much different, their definition of cleanliness is different, the cities are smaller and much more compact, Italy are a huge destination for tourists and international business especially for the size of the country. If this was going to happen to a country, Italy would be a top prospect.

Italy is different mostly in that it got infected sooner. US is on the same trajectory (although maybe Louisville will get lucky) . Look at the graph about halfway down this page.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...two-weeks.html

Also, I'm surprised at how many of you are quoting low fatality rates as a reason not to change behaviors. Yes you will probably survive but that may involve a trip to an ICU with acute respiratory distress. STDs have extremely low fatality rates due to modern medicines but we still take precautions before embracing the human Petri dishes we call sex workers.

[Member #6042]

If you think this is all media hype, please read this recent front-line testimony from Italy. Italy had only 600 Covid19 patients about a month ago.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...077697538.html

It's a completely different culture than in the US. Their sanitation is different, the medical care and hospitals are much different, their definition of cleanliness is different, the cities are smaller and much more compact, Italy are a huge destination for tourists and international business especially for the size of the country. If this was going to happen to a country, Italy would be a top prospect.

[MTWilliams911]

If you think this is all media hype, please read this recent front-line testimony from Italy. Italy had only 600 Covid19 patients about a month ago.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...077697538.html

Math.

USA. 34 million flu cases and 20,000 deaths.

USA. Coronavirus known 550 cases and 26 deaths.

Which is a much larger risk to you and your family? (Nearly all deaths in elderly).

Italians are undoubtedly bad at math. The Italian metrics are likely equal to USA.

Easy to overwhelm hospitals in Italy or here in USA. All you need to do is panic.

If the 34 million that had the flu in the USA had all shown up at the hospital due to panic, then there would be chaos just like in Italy.

Panic and not math is the problem. Media not explaining the math as they love a crisis as it equals viewers / readers.