Rants, Raves and Opinions AKA "The Octagon"

[BengalMan]

I'm betting on little to no change. Many of the folks sitting at home getting the extra benefit have jobs waiting for them that more than pay for the unemployment they are collecting. There may be a small dip if enough folks panic that that lack of free money will equate to less being spent in the economy. I bet enough walk back into retail / foodservice jobs & we keep the economy rolling.

If you want to look at a stock that is trading well below the expected value, check out KALA. They are FDA approved for a non-steroidal dry eye disease treatment. There are two things we are waiting on for the stock to take off: winter & BCBS. Once we see more cases of dry eye in winter, prescriptions should pick up. Also, NCNS is the only major insurer not to approve this as the primary drug to treat the disease. It's trading under $3. 50 today. Experts expect it to hit between $10 & $40, averaging around $21.

Look for a market correction in November.

[BengalMan]

I have been following the debate, and while I happen to be a semi-expert on this topic, I will not give credentials on this site, too many inferences can be made, too many dots connected. I will just point out that president Biden just today during his address re: the hurricane, pointed out how on the ball he is because he had taken actions and instructed his people to do certain things that would lower the gas prices. Hopefully Bill Clinton will pass this info on to him, we know he is a monger.

NS.

Then you know Biden is referring to the strategic petroleum reserves. The rest is called "the free market".

[CincyHobbist]

I have been following the debate, and while I happen to be a semi-expert on this topic, I will not give credentials on this site, too many inferences can be made, too many dots connected. I will just point out that president Biden just today during his address re: the hurricane, pointed out how on the ball he is because he had taken actions and instructed his people to do certain things that would lower the gas prices. Hopefully Bill Clinton will pass this info on to him, we know he is a monger.

NS.

All Biden will do is release x amount from the strategic reserve. This flooding the market which will lower prices momentarily! Then they will replenish the reserve with higher priced pricing, lining the pockets of the insiders in the government!

[MyFourthAcct]

Regardless if you're discussing Gad prices, Covid Cases and the lack of border security, the pathetic joke infrastructure bills. Letting 20 years in Afghanistan be for nothing. If you voted for Biden. And you are still making excuses because you just hated Trump so bad for putting Americans first. You are the problem. You are a moron. There is no discussion about it in any sense.

[Nothin Special]

I have been following the debate, and while I happen to be a semi-expert on this topic, I will not give credentials on this site, too many inferences can be made, too many dots connected. I will just point out that president Biden just today during his address re: the hurricane, pointed out how on the ball he is because he had taken actions and instructed his people to do certain things that would lower the gas prices. Hopefully Bill Clinton will pass this info on to him, we know he is a monger.

NS.

[WoodFordR69]

Since the perpetual unemployment benefits are cut off this week, can you give me 2 hot tips on stocks that will benefit? I need to replenish my monger fund.

I'm betting on little to no change. Many of the folks sitting at home getting the extra benefit have jobs waiting for them that more than pay for the unemployment they are collecting. There may be a small dip if enough folks panic that that lack of free money will equate to less being spent in the economy. I bet enough walk back into retail / foodservice jobs & we keep the economy rolling.

If you want to look at a stock that is trading well below the expected value, check out KALA. They are FDA approved for a non-steroidal dry eye disease treatment. There are two things we are waiting on for the stock to take off: winter & BCBS. Once we see more cases of dry eye in winter, prescriptions should pick up. Also, NCNS is the only major insurer not to approve this as the primary drug to treat the disease. It's trading under $3. 50 today. Experts expect it to hit between $10 & $40, averaging around $21.

[YoTooBig]

Nah. Your hardon for the GOP is evident. But you should take your own advice. Admit your problem. The Klan loves the GOP. The Klan loves Trump. The Klan loves the wall. What the GOP loves is pretty much the same things the Klan loves. Embrace your truth. Oh, and Neo Nazis are in the GOP's corner too.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN12X2IG

Believe and read whatever floats your boat. It will not be long before the Socialist Democratic KKK party turns us into a Shit hole country and we can all live on the Government Plantation.

[Hairy2]

We could both probably accurately predict in many cases what will happen if the government makes a significant policy / law. I do it in the stock market every day.

Since the perpetual unemployment benefits are cut off this week, can you give me 2 hot tips on stocks that will benefit? I need to replenish my monger fund.

[Hairy2]

Your explanation is right on! IMO, however, it could be argued that Biden's actions ARE a direct link since his actions caused the chain reactions that lead to the eventual price increase. It could also be argued that the commodity brokers did not "overreact", as you state, because Biden's actions on the pipeline signaled other actions that might be taken--I. E. , halting all drilling on public lands, his comments and desire for the "green new deal", etc. That's the kind of stuff that scares the hell out of commodity brokers.

On balance over the last few years, the US imports crude and exports refined products. Keystone was designed to take crude and bring it south to the refineries on the coast where it can be refined into fuels FOR EXPORT. For us mongers in the midwest, that would have the effect of INCREASING the price of our wasted 45 minute drives to the Ghost Notel.

Gas has gone up because we are driving again. I know we like to see gas at $1. 99, but when that happens, it means the economy has gone to crap.

P.S. I doubt the commodity brokers are scared of the green new deal. In fact, I think they salivate over the prospect.

[WoodFordR69]

The XL pipeline was still under construction so it's cancelation did not affect production, supply, or demand. You can try to claim it coulda-woulda-shoulda affected gas futures, but it didn't. It's completion was so tenuous that I doubt any real broker was betting their mutual funds on it. When Joe Biden won the election in early November, it's fate past January 20 was all but sealed (sealed the pipe, get it?

(I just knew someone was going to try using that policy argument. I called it. Maybe I should try my hand at futures. I seem to have a knack at predicting it.).

I fully realize we are splitting hairs here. Agree the pipeline was under construction. It's anticipated value helped depress future markets. Of course OPEC productions has an even larger impact on those futures.

Maybe my point on policy was not clear enough. I certainly think presidential policies have a link to market pricing. Trump's tariff increases had a rather direct impact on the imported goods that were now more expensive until domestic production could catch up to demand. In other cases like the pipeline, there is a link, a correlation, but not a causation. We could both probably accurately predict in many cases what will happen if the government makes a significant policy / law. I do it in the stock market every day. Policies are just one of the factors that impact the market.

[D Nut]

Since you are a Socialist Democrat KKK member yourself Thanks for proving my point. You hate when someone points out your short comings. Look at all the major cities ran and controlled by Socialist Democratic KKK party. Their policies kill more black men every day then the KKK of old could kill on their best day. One of your KKK heroes LBJ New Deal in 1964 was their master plan, and so far it's working just as planned. Sorry if the truth hurts but deal with it cup cake. Remember Step 1 omitting you have problem is the only way to get better.

Nah. Your hardon for the GOP is evident. But you should take your own advice. Admit your problem. The Klan loves the GOP. The Klan loves Trump. The Klan loves the wall. What the GOP loves is pretty much the same things the Klan loves. Embrace your truth. Oh, and Neo Nazis are in the GOP's corner too.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN12X2IG

[Kenal1]

The policies of a president do not have a direct impact, but they can influence the future prices. Commodities trades use policy shifts as part of the determination of what & how much to pay for futures. It can happen on Pork, Beef, Oil, Precious Metals, & a long list of other items. So Biden cancels the pipeline. A couple of commodity brokers overreact & buy heavy on futures for gas. Others don't want to be left out so they do the same. That creates an artificial price increase. While the President did not dictate an increase, his change in policy influenced others who have a more direct link to the prices. Lack of economics being taught in our schools & the MSM skipping significant facts in the story influence many to believe that there is a direct link between the two.

Your explanation is right on! IMO, however, it could be argued that Biden's actions ARE a direct link since his actions caused the chain reactions that lead to the eventual price increase. It could also be argued that the commodity brokers did not "overreact", as you state, because Biden's actions on the pipeline signaled other actions that might be taken--I. E. , halting all drilling on public lands, his comments and desire for the "green new deal", etc. That's the kind of stuff that scares the hell out of commodity brokers.

[D Nut]

The policies of a president do not have a direct impact, but they can influence the future prices. Commodities trades use policy shifts as part of the determination of what & how much to pay for futures. It can happen on Pork, Beef, Oil, Precious Metals, & a long list of other items. So Biden cancels the pipeline. A couple of commodity brokers overreact & buy heavy on futures for gas. Others don't want to be left out so they do the same. That creates an artificial price increase. While the President did not dictate an increase, his change in policy influenced others who have a more direct link to the prices. Lack of economics being taught in our schools & the MSM skipping significant facts in the story influence many to believe that there is a direct link between the two.

The XL pipeline was still under construction so it's cancelation did not affect production, supply, or demand. You can try to claim it coulda-woulda-shoulda affected gas futures, but it didn't. It's completion was so tenuous that I doubt any real broker was betting their mutual funds on it. When Joe Biden won the election in early November, it's fate past January 20 was all but sealed (sealed the pipe, get it?

(I just knew someone was going to try using that policy argument. I called it. Maybe I should try my hand at futures. I seem to have a knack at predicting it.).

[YoTooBig]

The KKK endorses Republicans. It's not a secret. Everyone knows it. If you were to try to argue and debate this point, you'll just confirm what everyone thinks of you. In your case, it's best to adhere to that old saying, "It's better to keep your mouth shut and people think you're dumb, that to open your mouth and confirm it.

(I'm sure you're going to argue that the KKK was founded by Democrats. Although true, since the "big switch" in the 1920's and 1930's, the Klan has supported the GOP pretty consistently since then.).

Since you are a Socialist Democrat KKK member yourself Thanks for proving my point. You hate when someone points out your short comings. Look at all the major cities ran and controlled by Socialist Democratic KKK party. Their policies kill more black men every day then the KKK of old could kill on their best day. One of your KKK heroes LBJ New Deal in 1964 was their master plan, and so far it's working just as planned. Sorry if the truth hurts but deal with it cup cake. Remember Step 1 omitting you have problem is the only way to get better.

[WoodFordR69]

There is a reason I chose wine-grape as a comparative analogy. I used products that are tied together, but whose prices can fluctuate independently over time. People think wine take years ito age and a cask. But in reality, it only takes a few months. Grape prices affect wine prices only on the production side. The cost to produce the wine ready to be bottled and sold now was set months ago. The same goes for oil and gas prices. Gas FUTURES are sold at rates that differ from the pump because it's more closely tied to oil prices today.

While they are related, they can fluctuate in the short term (such as gas price history looked at only in the last few months). I'm attached a chart I took from the link you provided, and stretched the query to 3 years. Although generally following the same pattern, Generally, in the short term, price fluctuations between oil and gas are such that there will be an inversion. Oil goes down, gas goes up, and vice versa. When looked at from a short sell standpoint, depending on how you bet your margins, it could be extremely profitable, or completely devastating.

As a sidebar, the concept of VAT (value added tax) was proposed and adopted by some countries as a way to negating the adverse short term effects of short term swings but taxing the added value at each stage of the process rather than 1 lump tax at the end of the production cycle.

Bottom line, the President doesn't control gas prices. Laymen will say, "but policies they set affect. " blah-blah-blah. No. It doesn't, and no they don't. Nobel prize winners can tell you that. In fact, one did. Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler explained it in his book "Misbehaving" when he discussed behavioral economics. Unless you yourself have a Nobel prize, I would listen to him.

The policies of a president do not have a direct impact, but they can influence the future prices. Commodities trades use policy shifts as part of the determination of what & how much to pay for futures. It can happen on Pork, Beef, Oil, Precious Metals, & a long list of other items. So Biden cancels the pipeline. A couple of commodity brokers overreact & buy heavy on futures for gas. Others don't want to be left out so they do the same. That creates an artificial price increase. While the President did not dictate an increase, his change in policy influenced others who have a more direct link to the prices. Lack of economics being taught in our schools & the MSM skipping significant facts in the story influence many to believe that there is a direct link between the two.