Corona virus

[JDorian]

Someone got cited for violate shelter in place order yesterday, walking her dog, I thought we could do that?

The people who were cited ignored police warnings to stay out of state or city owned parks. However if it gets really bad here, we may find the national guard patrolling our neighborhoods keeping us in place. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad. As for the US passing China, don't believe what the CCP is saying. They kicked out foreign journalists, and stamped out any dissent. They can under report all they want and no one will call them out on it. Plus when the next wave occurs, and it eventually will everywhere, the CCP can then blame it on outsiders bringing the virus back.

Remember when this forum was filled with posts on sex? Hopefully those days will return, rather than this thread as the most active. Hang on until June fellas. It's going to be a rocky one until then.

[MitsFunai]

Someone got cited for violate shelter in place order yesterday, walking her dog, I thought we could do that?

Limited exercising is allowable; maybe walking the dog isn't. Anyway, you supposed to get one first warning; after that, ignoring and continued violation of the warning will get you misdemeanor fine and possible jail sentence. It's all over the news but things do change as we go with this problem.

[MitsFunai]

LVBs are saving money by not going out now. And stimulus money might be coming soon. So it is possibly LVBs might be coming out in force when this crisis is over. My honey said she is doing fine. But the thing is my big Boozoka has been idle for a while. Can't wait for this crisis is over so I could fire it again.

Like the chief epidemiologist informed: the virus sets the timeline, not the humans. Plenty money being conserved without the KBs and KBGs. Going be one big bang when this is over and freedom is back in order; plenty cannons going boom.

[HiPickle]

The reason that the number of deaths caused by seasonal flus are higher in the US is that the seasonal flus are already circulating among the population before flu season starts. So the germs are already circulating and waiting for the most favorable conditions (winter weather favors transmission and worsens severity of illness). In orher words the seasonal flus have had a head start among the population in terms of the base of its spread compared to covid 19, which is new.

What is known about the seasonal flu is that it pretty much peters out after winter, since it needs favorable conditions to sustain its spread. This is due to the fact that a lot of people are already immune to these "old" viruses since they already had them in the past. So the rate of spread declines rapidly after winter since the cold dry weather dissipates and schools are out during summer, which lessens the concentration of hosts in a close indoor setting (school kids).

The covid 19, however, may not go away so easily after winter since no one is immune to it and thus does not need such favorable conditions for it to sustain its spread.

Regarding lethality, the CDC has already stated that covid19 is 10 times more lethal than the regular flu and to make matters worse is way more contagious.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/

I can't find the 10 x deadly reference in CDC. You have the link? Again, time will tell. I don't mind the initial response of lock downs at a little known virus to control it and "Flatten the curve", but a quarantine is the act of seperating those with it and those most at risk of having it. Not 100 % of the population. I realize the "we don't know who has it" arguments, but the problem is people, via media hysteria, are thinking it's a death sentence, when it's not. We do know who's most at risk, elderly with immune system deficiencies especially lung related. If they stay quarantined they have better control. Everyone else may have already had it and already recovered from minor effects or asymptomatic effects. Just my thoughts.

[WarriorForLife]

Someone got cited for violate shelter in place order yesterday, walking her dog, I thought we could do that?

[FleshPrince]

You snowflake, don't know what I'm physically doing, I'm simply posting my thoughts on the matter. Did I say I was out licking the population? GTFO. Here's something I'm curious about. Maybe you bright guys can enlighten me. Check my math, but something doesn't make sense.

According to the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm.

The seasonal flu, which includes various strains A and B, is at 23,000 deaths in the USA between September 29 and March 11.

164 days. Divide that. Over 140 deaths per day in the USA from the seasonal flu.

Now COVID-19. Again from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

994 deaths since January 21 to March 26.61 days, now divide.

16 deaths a day in the USA from COVID-19.

140 deaths per day from the seasonal flu.

What's the pandemic? 😏.

Try rational arguments. I'm all ears.

The reason that the number of deaths caused by seasonal flus are higher in the US is that the seasonal flus are already circulating among the population before flu season starts. So the germs are already circulating and waiting for the most favorable conditions (winter weather favors transmission and worsens severity of illness). In orher words the seasonal flus have had a head start among the population in terms of the base of its spread compared to covid 19, which is new.

What is known about the seasonal flu is that it pretty much peters out after winter, since it needs favorable conditions to sustain its spread. This is due to the fact that a lot of people are already immune to these "old" viruses since they already had them in the past. So the rate of spread declines rapidly after winter since the cold dry weather dissipates and schools are out during summer, which lessens the concentration of hosts in a close indoor setting (school kids).

The covid 19, however, may not go away so easily after winter since no one is immune to it and thus does not need such favorable conditions for it to sustain its spread.

Regarding lethality, the CDC has already stated that covid19 is 10 times more lethal than the regular flu and to make matters worse is way more contagious.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/

[Incogfilipino]

Thanks for the input. I've heard that same explanation before of course. I understand the virility of this strain of virus. What I question most is it's lethality. I do know that Europeans smoke like chimneys over there, so Spain and Italy catching a big brunt of deaths seems a logical progression. More have lung issues so more events equals more tested and more die. . Here in the US as elsewhere, I'd presume, you don't get tested unless you are showing simptoms, so makes sense for their numbers. Italys single payer Healthcare as one of the best in the world is debatable. I suppose I'll need six months of equal duration of this strain event to support my argument. .

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...b_dfWEEhhUDgi8#countries https://www.worldometers.info/corona...b_dfWEEhhUDgi8#countries.

We have surpassed China in cases yet less than half of their deaths. Chinese smoke like chimanys too I might add. Our event timeline looks more promising than what media portrays. Time will tell.

It's hard to tell right now since there are so many unknowns. China might have tons of smokers but they also have horrible pollution that might affect regular people in the same way as smoking a pack of cigarettes a day. I'm definitely in the boat that people need to stop overreacting and panic buying, but I'm also in the boat that people just need to be clean and stay the fuck home and let things die down. There are going to be arguments on both sides, people thinking this is nothing, people thinking this is apocalypse now or the rapture, but it's simply too early to tell. That's why just going by facts, it's still an incomplete set of data to support either side. If people stay inside and things slow down it would be very anticlimactic and the other side would say "see, told you so!" but it could go the other way too.

I'm just itching to travel again and been wanting to head back to the PI or Thailand, so I just want people to calm the fuck down and stay home and let this pass so I can travel again.

[HiPickle]

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/CO...ths_global.csv

Here are the deaths worldwide in a spreadsheet format. Not trying to argue, but dividing deaths by days only works if cases increase in a linear fashion. This has been rising exponentially, however, with most countries doubling cases every 3 to 4 days during peaks. We aren't to the point of the curve Italy has gotten to, for example, but you can see how it could rise to thousands of deaths a day very quickly. Our death rate has been basically doubling every four days as well, but it has not peaked yet due to our larger population. Age may also play a factor, as well as resiliency of infrastructure, since Italy has a large elderly population, but they also have some of the best health care systems in the world. Still plenty of time for death numbers to catch up, since the US is recording well over 100 deaths a day now.

Things will probably get worse before they get better though. This thing exploded really quickly. Makes you wonder how dirty people are and how many people haven't been washing their hands prior to that. Again, not trying to argue, just saying the speed of how this thing has been growing has been crazy.

Thanks for the input. I've heard that same explanation before of course. I understand the virility of this strain of virus. What I question most is it's lethality. I do know that Europeans smoke like chimneys over there, so Spain and Italy catching a big brunt of deaths seems a logical progression. More have lung issues so more events equals more tested and more die. . Here in the US as elsewhere, I'd presume, you don't get tested unless you are showing simptoms, so makes sense for their numbers. Italys single payer Healthcare as one of the best in the world is debatable. I suppose I'll need six months of equal duration of this strain event to support my argument. .

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...b_dfWEEhhUDgi8#countries https://www.worldometers.info/corona...b_dfWEEhhUDgi8#countries.

We have surpassed China in cases yet less than half of their deaths. Chinese smoke like chimanys too I might add. Our event timeline looks more promising than what media portrays. Time will tell.

[Ichiro Cho]

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/CO...ths_global.csv

Here are the deaths worldwide in a spreadsheet format. Not trying to argue, but dividing deaths by days only works if cases increase in a linear fashion. This has been rising exponentially, however, with most countries doubling cases every 3 to 4 days during peaks. We aren't to the point of the curve Italy has gotten to, for example, but you can see how it could rise to thousands of deaths a day very quickly. Our death rate has been basically doubling every four days as well, but it has not peaked yet due to our larger population. Age may also play a factor, as well as resiliency of infrastructure, since Italy has a large elderly population, but they also have some of the best health care systems in the world. Still plenty of time for death numbers to catch up, since the US is recording well over 100 deaths a day now.

Things will probably get worse before they get better though. This thing exploded really quickly. Makes you wonder how dirty people are and how many people haven't been washing their hands prior to that. Again, not trying to argue, just saying the speed of how this thing has been growing has been crazy.

Brother Incog is correct, Covid-19 is much more contagious than the flu and infections grow exponentially. Also consider that the mortality rate for the annual flu is about. 01% vs 1. 00% to 2. 50% for Covid-19. At the bottom rate that is ten times more deadly than the flu. Why is it more deadly? The flu attacks your upper respiratory system (ie nasal sinuses throat), while the Covid attacks the lungs. In acute cases, the virus gets into your lower tracts of your lungs causing a cascade of inflammation, scaring and Pneumonia. Another factor to consider is that this is a "novel" virus" meaning that our immune system has not seen it before and as a result we generally do not have a natural resistance to the virus. Public Health officials are worried because if too many people get sick all at once, there are not enough hospital beds or supplies to take care of all these people which will drive the mortality rate even higher. Take out your handy spreadsheet take 2 x2 and keep multiplying the result by 2. Assuming the virus infects 2. 5 people every four days. Allowed to grow unchecked it will infect 19,073 people in the first 40-days. The numbers just spiral upward. This is just my back of the napkin calculation. Health officials have sophisticated mathematical models for this kind of thing. This is the reason health officials want us all to wash our hands and practice social distancing.

I hope this helps. Stay safe brothers.

[Punanilicr]

You snowflake, don't know what I'm physically doing, I'm simply posting my thoughts on the matter. Did I say I was out licking the population? GTFO. Here's something I'm curious about. Maybe you bright guys can enlighten me. Check my math, but something doesn't make sense.

According to the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm.

The seasonal flu, which includes various strains A and B, is at 23,000 deaths in the USA between September 29 and March 11.

164 days. Divide that. Over 140 deaths per day in the USA from the seasonal flu.

Now COVID-19. Again from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

994 deaths since January 21 to March 26.61 days, now divide.

16 deaths a day in the USA from COVID-19.

140 deaths per day from the seasonal flu.

What's the pandemic?

Try rational arguments. I'm all ears.

All I know is that every year, I can get a flu shot that will prevent me from getting most varieties of the seasonal flu. I haven't had the flu in years. As of today, there's no vaccine for Covid19. Therefore, everyone, is capable of getting the virus. That's the main difference, and that's what makes it a pandemic. Anyone and everyone can get it. Get a flu shot and you most likely are good to go.

[Incogfilipino]

You snowflake, don't know what I'm physically doing, I'm simply posting my thoughts on the matter. Did I say I was out licking the population? GTFO. Here's something I'm curious about. Maybe you bright guys can enlighten me. Check my math, but something doesn't make sense.

According to the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm.

The seasonal flu, which includes various strains A and B, is at 23,000 deaths in the USA between September 29 and March 11.

164 days. Divide that. Over 140 deaths per day in the USA from the seasonal flu.

Now COVID-19. Again from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

994 deaths since January 21 to March 26.61 days, now divide.

16 deaths a day in the USA from COVID-19.

140 deaths per day from the seasonal flu.

What's the pandemic? 😏.

Try rational arguments. I'm all ears.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/CO...ths_global.csv

Here are the deaths worldwide in a spreadsheet format. Not trying to argue, but dividing deaths by days only works if cases increase in a linear fashion. This has been rising exponentially, however, with most countries doubling cases every 3 to 4 days during peaks. We aren't to the point of the curve Italy has gotten to, for example, but you can see how it could rise to thousands of deaths a day very quickly. Our death rate has been basically doubling every four days as well, but it has not peaked yet due to our larger population. Age may also play a factor, as well as resiliency of infrastructure, since Italy has a large elderly population, but they also have some of the best health care systems in the world. Still plenty of time for death numbers to catch up, since the US is recording well over 100 deaths a day now.

Things will probably get worse before they get better though. This thing exploded really quickly. Makes you wonder how dirty people are and how many people haven't been washing their hands prior to that. Again, not trying to argue, just saying the speed of how this thing has been growing has been crazy.

[Drake678]

Everybody is now a prisoner in their own homes. Nobody can leave. I don't know if the government is lying or not! The government has lied to the people in the past. Not everything they shared was the truth. That is why I don't know if this is the truth or not. Maybe this is set up for something bigger to come? All I know is there is no toilet paper! No hand sanitizers! I have even seen price gouging! So what happens if everybody stays home for 14 days and people still get sick. The new cases climb! Then what?! Are they going to increase the stay at home to May? Or June? Or October?

[HiPickle]

You're a living example of Darwinism at work.

Yeah. Yeah. You're "a rebel, Dotti. A loner. ".

Give me a break.

You're ignorantly ignoring science and scientists and you're putting your neighbor's lives at risk because you're selfish and stupid.

Shameful.

You snowflake, don't know what I'm physically doing, I'm simply posting my thoughts on the matter. Did I say I was out licking the population? GTFO. Here's something I'm curious about. Maybe you bright guys can enlighten me. Check my math, but something doesn't make sense.

According to the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm.

The seasonal flu, which includes various strains A and B, is at 23,000 deaths in the USA between September 29 and March 11.

164 days. Divide that. Over 140 deaths per day in the USA from the seasonal flu.

Now COVID-19. Again from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

994 deaths since January 21 to March 26.61 days, now divide.

16 deaths a day in the USA from COVID-19.

140 deaths per day from the seasonal flu.

What's the pandemic? 😏.

Try rational arguments. I'm all ears.

[JohnWik]

PornHub is offering free premium right now, to help people stay home, if you didn't know.

I know there probably aren't any SW out there, wonder if there are any escorts or MP still working

Great to know! Thanks for the info. Saves the day.

[WarriorForLife]

LVBs are saving money by not going out now. And stimulus money might be coming soon. So it is possibly LVBs might be coming out in force when this crisis is over. My honey said she is doing fine. But the thing is my big Boozoka has been idle for a while. Can't wait for this crisis is over so I could fire it again.