Corona virus

[Admin2]

Asian countries (e.g. , China, Taiwan, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore) are preparing for a second wave of COVID 19, suggesting "recovered" patients have become infected again. There is no evidence that patients have gained an immunity to a second about of the infection. This thing is scary and deadly due to its many unknowns.

Viruses can be persistent because they are cyclical like COVID 19; according to experts, vaccine for COVID 19 maybe as early as September but realistically 16-18 months from now. Stay safe and hope for the best.

I posted this on another thread, I'm not math wiz but I asked some friends who are to check the numbers and they say it looks good. If I'm wrong point it out so I can correct my posts.

This data is from the Italian Public Health ministry compiled from the cases they had.

In the age groups 10-40 the mortality rate of C-19 is. 02% that means out of every 100,000 people with confirmed cases in those age groups 20 will die.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...x-demographics

Further the Italian medical authorities found that 99% of those that did die had pre-existing conditions, diabetes, obesity, asthma, heart disease, something like that. So that means that if we back that up to 90% (give it a margin of error) that of those 20 who died 2 of them wouldn't have had an underlying health risk.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ess-italy-says

To represent that graphically the picture attached is the new River Plate stadium in the city of Buenos Aires Argentina. It's "official capacity" is 70,000 but since we are a third world country they routinly pack more than that into it. The most people who have ever been here was a super classico between River and Boca Jr's at 102,000 people. Using the numbers genuine, bone fide experts in the medical field if this stadium was packed to standing room only capacity of people between the ages of 10 and 40 and each and every one of them had been tested and was confirmed to have a real, honest to god, no shit, no fooling case of Covid 19 then exactly two of them would die not having underlying conditions.

Seriously, 2 people. Before you answer, this isn't Red Sox and Yankees the economy of the fucking world is in balance, you can look at the data and change your mind and start demanding change. Let's put the old people up in super luxury hotels and feed them caviar omelettes and give them foot rubs until there is a vaccine. I'm not saying they should die.

8,200 people a day die in the US every day. 3,000,000 people every year, if 100,000 more die from C-19 then it's only a 3% increase. This hysteria has to stop.

If you filled the stadium up with people from 40-50 then 40 of them would die and 4 without underlying conditions.

If they were 50-60 (my group) 100 would did and 10 of them would have been healthy when they caught it.

Seriously, 2 people, that's not bullshit, you can run the numbers yourself. The media has you convinced C-19 is a death sentence like ebola, it's not.

A2.

[TheSpius19]

Ha ha ha yeah all caps! Why is your that Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong which are all close proximity to Wuhan was not as severely as affected as Italy, Spain and New York which are thousands of kilometers away from Wuhan?

I'm waiting for someone to translate your post into English.

[NerdFriday]

Check out the graph. Compare with 9/11 in NYC.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say with that graph.

1) That does not take into account all deaths as the result of the 9/11 attacks, only shows in brief increase of those that died immediately in the attack.

2) That does nothing to indicate future death trends due to COVID, because we don't even have a specific treatment yet.

3) This only shows deaths in NYC, which happens to be particularly densely affected small sample from the entire population.

4) There's no doubt people will die of COVID for many years to come, the same way flu kills people, even though flu vaccines and hand-washing are available.

[WinterWarlock]

Check out the graph. Compare with 9/11 in NYC.

Getting Corona will become an everyday thing like getting the flu and will just have to be accepted, "cyclic" or not.

[NerdFriday]

Asian countries (e.g. , China, Taiwan, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore) are preparing for a second wave of COVID 19, suggesting "recovered" patients have become infected again. There is no evidence that patients have gained an immunity to a second about of the infection. This thing is scary and deadly due to its many unknowns.

Viruses can be persistent because they are cyclical like COVID 19; according to experts, vaccine for COVID 19 maybe as early as September but realistically 16-18 months from now. Stay safe and hope for the best.

I wouldn't expect a relapse to be worse than the first wave of infections. Literally everyone is learning and everyone should be smarter the second time around in terms of survival rates. I'm sure a lot of the alarmists will learn hyperbole loses its power the more educated people become. Fauci and Cuomo said they needed 30,000 ventilators, but are currently using less than the 3,000 they have, most of which are in "stockpile". NY is the worst state by far and their medical system seems to be doing just fine. Sure, it's scary to think that 80% of people in NY who are on ventilators die, but people need to realize that when you on an actual ventilator, it's like you basically have "Stage 3 or 4 cancer". Most people fully recover from COVID with minor inconvenience. Some need to go to the hospital. Some need to be on oxygen or intubation. Extreme minority needs to be on a ventilator, and of that minority, a majority of them die. A ventilator is literally for someone who can no longer breathe on their own. Having oxygen shot into your nose or a tube shoved down your throat is not the same thing as being on a ventilator.

The real problem is the economy, because at some point, money is going to run out. The Feds loaning out interest free money and government stimulus / grants / benefits cannot go on forever without serious economic repercussions. At some point, the "freebies" are going to be cut. You may not be evicted or have your utilities turned off, but you're going to have to pay them at some point. The damage to the economy is not apparent just yet. Wait until people have to start paying back rent, utilities and loans with working adults being forced to find employment at only a fraction of a rate they once had. It's going to be bad when families household incomes are 80% what they once were and needing to pay 120% on their bills to makeup for back payments. Remember, that's the "gainfully employed" group of people who no longer have their old jobs. Imagine what happens to the people who can't find any reasonable work or the people who don't work at all. WW1 and WW2 were both started by shitty economic conditions, so the economy, local and global need to be considered. Not saying COVID will start WW3, but when people get poor, they get desperate.

TL; DR.

We can't keep giving freebies forever. People are going to have to go back to work, even at bars. Getting Corona will become an everyday thing like getting the flu and will just have to be accepted, "cyclic" or not.

[LocaLoppa]

If you didn't catch the interview of Hawaii ex pat from Kauai now living in Italy, its a must see. From the outside in, she said the Kauai mayor is a leader vs rest of Hawaii fakes. She also said what is obvious to some of us--Hawaii went act on dis too late, ho man. How cum Hawaii never ban flights from China, Asia when rest of world started? And local still walking out and about like nothing going happen to them. She went say the only thing going make the locals take this seriously is more dead, which going happen guarantees.

This is way different from fucking ass bareback, where you risk your own life. You can kill your neighbors and friends with this virus.

It may take a little longer, but this will pass, we will figure this out.

[JDorian]

You guys think the bars will really open again April 30th or you think the shut down gets extended?

I thinks portions of the economy will be allowed to reopen by May 1. Bars, restaurants, gyms, and mass gatherings like sporting events, Churches, concert halls, and global air travel will be much later. I wouldn't expect like to return to somewhat of normalcy for a long time. I read that the 1918 Spanish influenza kept killing until 1921 or 22. It's going to take a while until someone comes up with a method to treat this disease or creates a vaccine.

[MitsFunai]

You guys think the bars will really open again April 30th or you think the shut down gets extended?

Asian countries (e.g. , China, Taiwan, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore) are preparing for a second wave of COVID 19, suggesting "recovered" patients have become infected again. There is no evidence that patients have gained an immunity to a second about of the infection. This thing is scary and deadly due to its many unknowns.

Viruses can be persistent because they are cyclical like COVID 19; according to experts, vaccine for COVID 19 maybe as early as September but realistically 16-18 months from now. Stay safe and hope for the best.

[Incogfilipino]

You guys think the bars will really open again April 30th or you think the shut down gets extended?

Depends on how people act before and after it is lifted. If things slow down and we over the hump of the curve, I can see things slowly returning back to normal. If people start getting more stir crazy, acting nuts, forgetting basic cleanliness, we could see a second spike significant enough for the government to respond with an extension. Hopefully people just stay home and things get back to normal soon.

[KingStep]

You guys think the bars will really open again April 30th or you think the shut down gets extended?

[Honolulu968]

Even the CDC has a problem with the numbers. Here are the facts boys.

Forget about cumulative deaths from flu. The key number is the number of deaths per day. Over the last 24 hours, 2,100 Americans died from coronavirus, making it the leading cause of deaths in the US.

The former leading cause of death was heart disease. The most recent data from the CDC is 647,000 deaths from heart disease per year, which works out to 1,770 per day. Worse, corona is still climbing.

A worse case year for flu deaths is like 60 K per year. Even if the number today doesn't grow, we will beat that number in one fucking month.

In 2019 there were 114 million birth and 54 million deaths worldwide. It will be interesting to see the birth and death rate in 2020 at years end, not predictions. Solid numbers.

I'm going to be interested in seeing that as well. The US has an average death rate of 3,000,000 people per year which is 8200 a day. If 100,000 people die from Corona that's a 3% increase.

A2

[John HandCock]

Even the CDC has a problem with the numbers. Here are the facts boys.

Forget about cumulative deaths from flu. The key number is the number of deaths per day. Over the last 24 hours, 2,100 Americans died from coronavirus, making it the leading cause of deaths in the US.

The former leading cause of death was heart disease. The most recent data from the CDC is 647,000 deaths from heart disease per year, which works out to 1,770 per day. Worse, corona is still climbing.

A worse case year for flu deaths is like 60 K per year. Even if the number today doesn't grow, we will beat that number in one fucking month.

This won't even thin the herd LOL.

[Bikini]

Is the cop in a squad car or unmarked car?

It's usually a squad car.

[NerdFriday]

IMO "Deaths per day" is not a good statistic to look at, because the number that occurs within a given day cannot be accurately correlated to the whole trend e. G. Accuracy of reporting, numbers of tests done, long latency period etc.

I look at "Deaths per million" in countries with more than 50,000 cases because that gives the biggest picture of the whole situation. The USA, which has the worlds single largest number of cases by 2 x-3 x the next, still has only a fraction of the "DPM" in comparison. This means we are doing a very good job. In order to see the whole picture, the country must have: 1) a significantly large portion of affected individuals; 2) decently available, accurate, and public reporting of cases and deaths; 3) statistics properly scaled.

[Buster Hymen]

Even the CDC has a problem with the numbers. Here are the facts boys.

Forget about cumulative deaths from flu. The key number is the number of deaths per day. Over the last 24 hours, 2,100 Americans died from coronavirus, making it the leading cause of deaths in the US.

The former leading cause of death was heart disease. The most recent data from the CDC is 647,000 deaths from heart disease per year, which works out to 1,770 per day. Worse, corona is still climbing.

A worse case year for flu deaths is like 60 K per year. Even if the number today doesn't grow, we will beat that number in one fucking month.