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[QUOTE=Mipene77;1932072]Just a question for all you sport betters. Please don't take this as a lecture / scolding etc. But why would you bet into a historically backtested losing system? I scanned this thread thoroughly and I saw that some of you guys are posting your long term YTD betting records. I noticed that the majority if not all of them have more losers than winners! How do you make money in the long run like that?
For example when I did the backtesting for my forex trading system I used over 30 years of data in all different environments and came up with a strategy that was a winner in all market environments. I am much wealthier now because of all that hard work using a strategy that has more winners than losers and my average win is greater than my average loss.
My point being is that it doesn't look like as a compilation of all the betters data posted here that anyone is winning in the longer term. Unless I am missing something here. I understand statistics and probabilities and it just doesn't look like the odds are in you guys favor. Like I said please help me understand. I am always curious into what drives people to do what they do. Of course I can understand that sports betting can make the game more fun sometimes but it can also make watching the games more stressful if you are losing.[/QUOTE]The games I post on here are just for fun, most of the time I only bet on one or two strong teams, my real record for the teams I actually bet on is 18-5-1 NFL only, est 77% not bad so far.
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[QUOTE=HypoLuxa;1932801]True, that is the advantages for a local recruit. But, not for one from the mainland.
I have to disagree. There is no way that talent being even, the benefit would not go to the player who plays for a big school that has nationally televised games and is on the highlights frequently. When the drafts occur, it is all about perception... And if you aren't "seen" and "known" about, you get drafted lower, and get a lower starting contract. True that if you have the talent, you can work yourself up, but why start with that knock against you...
I understand the loyalty to UH, but I can't go with that rationalization for playing late home games after the mainland sleeps.
Anyway, that's just how I see it. Many angles to see it from.[/QUOTE]I've stated for the mainland recruits it seems their motivation for coming here is the opportunity to play and have an impact that way instead of red shirting then sitting another year and the playing after the second year also I'm guessing the tropical weather and a chance to experience Hawaii and going away for college at the same time could only sweeten the deal, but really at this point the focus and concern isn't with our mainland recruits, that isn't the problem, for the university to have "sustained sucess" was your wording, that has to come from homegrown talent, I say this because there may be a coach in this world (ex. Steve Spurerior?) who can come here, recruit nationally and have sustained sucess that way, but what happens when he leaves? We back to the same old thing again, but if we get the kids locally to play here establish some close lines (friendships) of communication among the university and high school coaches and their association, maybe then we can establish some sort of tradition among the communities families with the university, to the point where we have families like the Yap's, Noga's who almost without question are going to send their son's and daughter's to the university. But for all that to happen, we first need to start breaking down the ideaology among the community that sending the kids away for schooling is what's best for their son's and daughters. Sounds simple and it really is but the problem is this; how do we break down that ideaology, maybe sending the kids away really is what's best, who can argue that? Idk maybe it starts with the Yap's, the Noga's, the Santiago's of the community. Yeah I will say playing for a nationally recognized program will garner you the attention you deserve but nothing more, you'll be graded the same as the next guy with equal talent playing for small town college, would they be more apted to take a chance on the established program's guy first, I'd say so, but if you can play on Sunday's you will be recognized and you will play, there isn't a year that goes by where a guy who desires to play on Sunday's and has the skills and talent to do so, doesn't simply because he wasn't discovered, it doesn't happen, exposure comes with ability, therefore it's ability that gets you playing on sundays and not exposure. Idk one thing is for sure we all love our Bow's football!
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No opportunities here
[QUOTE=LowlysOne;1933387]I've stated for the mainland recruits it seems their motivation for coming here is the opportunity to play and have an impact that way instead of red shirting then sitting another year and the playing after the second year also I'm guessing the tropical weather and a chance to experience Hawaii and going away for college at the same time could only sweeten the deal, but really at this point the focus and concern isn't with our mainland recruits, that isn't the problem, for the university to have "sustained sucess" was your wording, that has to come from homegrown talent, I say this because there may be a coach in this world (ex. Steve Spurerior?) who can come here, recruit nationally and have sustained sucess that way, but what happens when he leaves? We back to the same old thing again, but if we get the kids locally to play here establish some close lines (friendships) of communication among the university and high school coaches and their association, maybe then we can establish some sort of tradition among the communities families with the university, to the point where we have families like the Yap's, Noga's who almost without question are going to send their son's and daughter's to the university. But for all that to happen, we first need to start breaking down the ideaology among the community that sending the kids away for schooling is what's best for their son's and daughters. Sounds simple and it really is but the problem is this; how do we break down that ideaology, maybe sending the kids away really is what's best, who can argue that? Idk maybe it starts with the Yap's, the Noga's, the Santiago's of the community. Yeah I will say playing for a nationally recognized program will garner you the attention you deserve but nothing more, you'll be graded the same as the next guy with equal talent playing for small town college, would they be more apted to take a chance on the established program's guy first, I'd say so, but if you can play on Sunday's you will be recognized and you will play, there isn't a year that goes by where a guy who desires to play on Sunday's and has the skills and talent to do so, doesn't simply because he wasn't discovered, it doesn't happen, exposure comes with ability, therefore it's ability that gets you playing on sundays and not exposure. Idk one thing is for sure we all love our Bow's football![/QUOTE]I wanted to respond to your comments on why the parents here send the kids away. First of all there is no future in Hawaii. What do you have here? You have a retail, service oriented economy, which means only low paying dead end jobs. There is also government / military jobs here but I am sure most college grads don't want those. College grads want high paying private sector jobs that challenge them. Also how in the hell is a college grad ever going to afford a house here? With the median price of a home at over $500,000 to $600,000 the homes here are way out of reach for any grad just starting a new job at minimal pay. Most parents just want the best for their child and they don't want to see their child struggle. If I had a child there is no way in hell I would encourage him to stay in Hawaii. The cost of living here is just way way too high and with a local government here that keeps fleecing the public it will never get any cheaper. JMO but based on fact.
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[QUOTE=LowlysOne;1933387]I've stated for the mainland recruits it seems their motivation for coming here is the opportunity to play and have an impact that way instead of red shirting then sitting another year and the playing after the second year also I'm guessing the tropical weather and a chance to experience Hawaii and going away for college at the same time could only sweeten the deal, but really at this point the focus and concern isn't with our mainland recruits, that isn't the problem, for the university to have "sustained sucess" was your wording, that has to come from homegrown talent, I say this because there may be a coach in this world (ex. Steve Spurerior?) who can come here, recruit nationally and have sustained sucess that way, but what happens when he leaves? We back to the same old thing again, but if we get the kids locally to play here establish some close lines (friendships) of communication among the university and high school coaches and their association, maybe then we can establish some sort of tradition among the communities families with the university, to the point where we have families like the Yap's, Noga's who almost without question are going to send their son's and daughter's to the university. But for all that to happen, we first need to start breaking down the ideaology among the community that sending the kids away for schooling is what's best for their son's and daughters. Sounds simple and it really is but the problem is this; how do we break down that ideaology, maybe sending the kids away really is what's best, who can argue that? Idk maybe it starts with the Yap's, the Noga's, the Santiago's of the community. Yeah I will say playing for a nationally recognized program will garner you the attention you deserve but nothing more, you'll be graded the same as the next guy with equal talent playing for small town college, would they be more apted to take a chance on the established program's guy first, I'd say so, but if you can play on Sunday's you will be recognized and you will play, there isn't a year that goes by where a guy who desires to play on Sunday's and has the skills and talent to do so, doesn't simply because he wasn't discovered, it doesn't happen, exposure comes with ability, therefore it's ability that gets you playing on sundays and not exposure. Idk one thing is for sure we all love our Bow's football![/QUOTE]Hawaii isn't Texas or California. There isn't the same number in the talent pool here. Certainly not enough to recruit solely from. To have success you need to recruit nationally and get a lot more talented players from a BIG talent pool... Not just Hawaii. Don't get me wrong, Hawaii does have talent for sure, but not enough to only recruit from to compete with mainland teams who get recruits from all over the nation. There have been cases where Kahuku linemen's families move to the west coast during their high school senior years to play for a chance at better college scholarships.
As far as being judged solely on talent, man... I wished it work that way. I really do. I do agree that would be fairest. But during draft day the teams draft not only for on-field success, but also to put asses in the seats. Name recognition from college careers do that. Look at Tim Tebow. Horrible NFL caliber QB. Last in the league type stats. But, he was drafted in the first round because of his recognition factor. As for talent, yes, it counts more than anything... but you have to have people see that talent to know you have it. Hawaii players do not get seen. The stands are nearly empty and there is usually only one nationally televised game per year.
Anyway, I respect your loyalty to UH Warriors. I really do... And I pull for them too. But they have to do more to attract top quality players from "all" over the country.
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[QUOTE=HypoLuxa;1933701]Hawaii isn't Texas or California. There isn't the same number in the talent pool here. Certainly not enough to recruit solely from. To have success you need to recruit nationally and get a lot more talented players from a BIG talent pool... Not just Hawaii. Don't get me wrong, Hawaii does have talent for sure, but not enough to only recruit from to compete with mainland teams who get recruits from all over the nation. There have been cases where Kahuku linemen's families move to the west coast during their high school senior years to play for a chance at better college scholarships.
As far as being judged solely on talent, man... I wished it work that way. I really do. I do agree that would be fairest. But during draft day the teams draft not only for on-field success, but also to put asses in the seats. Name recognition from college careers do that. Look at Tim Tebow. Horrible NFL caliber QB. Last in the league type stats. But, he was drafted in the first round because of his recognition factor. As for talent, yes, it counts more than anything... but you have to have people see that talent to know you have it. Hawaii players do not get seen. The stands are nearly empty and there is usually only one nationally televised game per year.
Anyway, I respect your loyalty to UH Warriors. I really do... And I pull for them too. But they have to do more to attract top quality players from "all" over the country.[/QUOTE]We do recruit nationally, we've had tons of great players from the mainland, Kafentzis brothers, Colt Brennan, Walter Murray, Devon Bess and a whole bunch of others, I don't understand what you mean by "to have sucess we need to recruit nationally", we do recruit nationally! Most of our best players came from the mainland, I've never said we don't need to recruit nationally, we do, but what I'm saying is our national recruiting isn't the problem, we will never be able to get the 5 star, blue chip mainland recruit to come here, but we do get guys that can come here and start and even star for us, that's not the problem, if we can get the same level of talent coming from the mainland as we have for the past two decades, we would be fine, that part of recruiting doesn't need fixing, the part that needs a massive overhaul and atitude change is the local recruiting, and yes we are not California, Florida, Louisiana or Texas, but we don't need to be them, the level of talent here is well above what we need, remember yes these states have tons of players but they are required because these states also have a ton of college football programs that need to be fed, here in Hawaii we have one university to feed, just one! There is an abundance of talent here much more than our one university needs, but yet we still fail to enroll them into our university. Here's a few links for the list of division 1 football recruits out of hawaii high schools I'm going to try to find the last five years of division 1 recruits out of our high schools, take a look at the amount of division1 recruits we have coming out of this state and where they end up, if our mainland recruiting stays at the same level it has been for the past twenty years, that's fine, but we are able to get just half, even a third of the local recruits that go away to play, we could have sustained success. Remember we have only one university to feed from our high schools, Hawaii has an enourmous talent pool to choose from (what would make you think we didn't have a big talent pool to choose from? We need to fill only one university take a look at the amount and the level of universities that these local recruits go to, it's the opposite, when it comes to football, we have an abundance of talent for the amount of scholarships available, enourmous! Here's a link stating that hawaii is ranked number eight inplayers per capita in this nation ahead of states such as Texas, California, Ohio, ect. We have only one university to fill, remember that. [URL]http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1182411[/URL].
[URL]http://www.maxpreps.com/signingday/list.aspx?tab=school&state=HI&ssid=37631434-bc40-4d46-a7c5-1042c42e338c[/URL], , dam I can't find the lasdt five years of division 1 recruits that went away but trust me the number is about the same as 2013 anywhere between 15-20 per year that we lose.
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Hawaii's got talent
I see what Lowly's bro is saying. We averaged 21 D1 recruits per years 2008 to 2013 ranking us 27th among all states BUT #5 per capita ahead of such states as Texas#8 and California#17. Only Louisiana#1, Alabama#2, Florida#3, and Georgia#4, was ahead of us per capita. Yeah, most of our good recruits go away and do WELL. Alas, most of them want the mainland experience along with being part of a big time football program to experience playing with and against the best. I really doubt its for exposure per se, at least as the main reason for choosing a certain school. Many of them don't even count on being drafted someday or being a nfl prospect as foremost thought altho they of course would love to as every college kid does. It would be great if we kept half our kids like Lowlys bro says but the main draw of mainland schools imo is that kids want to experience being away from home and being an adult on thier own.
As far as exposure and noticed, got to disagree with Hypo bro. Today, the nfl draft system is VERY thourough in finding nfl talent. Prospects from even D3 schools with no TV exposure get looked at by the tons of scouts. Then there is the nfl combine and pro day. Everything about a possible draft pick is looked at with a fine tooth comb no matter what school they went. Perception as to who to pick is old days, not really today. Today, they measure EVERYTHING about you including your brain! That's why alot of all america team guys not even drafted. Interesting to note that almost every nfl team thought Tebow was a qb lemon and Denver choosing him was an anomoly. They went with his rep as a winner along with being the most media exposed celebrity in college football history. Also, the qb position is the hardest to scrutinize and judge unlike say a lineman or LB. The rest of the nfl teams would not have even drafted him, at least not as a qb. Being on espn every week will not get you drafted any more than the guy whos not. The nfl scouts and coaches aint stupid. If someone is good, they the nfl will know about it no matter what school. College coaches TALK to nfl coaches all the time too. Just saying needing TV exposure to get drafted or being a higher draft pick is overated imo.
Now my suggestion for keeping recruits to stay home. Have somebody show them the adult life by taking them AMP and hostess bar once a week free of charge as "guest". I would gladly take them on the Aloha Korean Bar Tour. I'm JOKING! LOL.
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Good Idea
[QUOTE=Oldee;1933768]I see what Lowly's bro is saying. We averaged 21 D1 recruits per years 2008 to 2013 ranking us 27th among all states BUT #5 per capita ahead of such states as Texas#8 and California#17. Only Louisiana#1, Alabama#2, Florida#3, and Georgia#4, was ahead of us per capita. Yeah, most of our good recruits go away and do WELL. Alas, most of them want the mainland experience along with being part of a big time football program to experience playing with and against the best. I really doubt its for exposure per se, at least as the main reason for choosing a certain school. Many of them don't even count on being drafted someday or being a nfl prospect as foremost thought altho they of course would love to as every college kid does. It would be great if we kept half our kids like Lowlys bro says but the main draw of mainland schools imo is that kids want to experience being away from home and being an adult on thier own.
As far as exposure and noticed, got to disagree with Hypo bro. Today, the nfl draft system is VERY thourough in finding nfl talent. Prospects from even D3 schools with no TV exposure get looked at by the tons of scouts. Then there is the nfl combine and pro day. Everything about a possible draft pick is looked at with a fine tooth comb no matter what school they went. Perception as to who to pick is old days, not really today. Today, they measure EVERYTHING about you including your brain! That's why alot of all america team guys not even drafted. Interesting to note that almost every nfl team thought Tebow was a qb lemon and Denver choosing him was an anomoly. They went with his rep as a winner along with being the most media exposed celebrity in college football history. Also, the qb position is the hardest to scrutinize and judge unlike say a lineman or LB. The rest of the nfl teams would not have even drafted him, at least not as a qb. Being on espn every week will not get you drafted any more than the guy whos not. The nfl scouts and coaches aint stupid. If someone is good, they the nfl will know about it no matter what school. College coaches TALK to nfl coaches all the time too. Just saying needing TV exposure to get drafted or being a higher draft pick is overated imo.
Now my suggestion for keeping recruits to stay home. Have somebody show them the adult life by taking them AMP and hostess bar once a week free of charge as "guest". I would gladly take them on the Aloha Korean Bar Tour. I'm JOKING! LOL.[/QUOTE]Yea I bet with all that money that they are overpaying Norm Chow with they could probably afford to take the whole team to an AMP pretty often!
So guys really. If all of you say that there is talent here then with all due respect where is the consistent winning record year over year? Why aren't the Bows nationally ranked consistently?
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[QUOTE=Oldee;1933768]I see what Lowly's bro is saying. We averaged 21 D1 recruits per years 2008 to 2013 ranking us 27th among all states BUT #5 per capita ahead of such states as Texas#8 and California#17. Only Louisiana#1, Alabama#2, Florida#3, and Georgia#4, was ahead of us per capita. Yeah, most of our good recruits go away and do WELL. Alas, most of them want the mainland experience along with being part of a big time football program to experience playing with and against the best. I really doubt its for exposure per se, at least as the main reason for choosing a certain school. Many of them don't even count on being drafted someday or being a nfl prospect as foremost thought altho they of course would love to as every college kid does. It would be great if we kept half our kids like Lowlys bro says but the main draw of mainland schools imo is that kids want to experience being away from home and being an adult on thier own.
As far as exposure and noticed, got to disagree with Hypo bro. Today, the nfl draft system is VERY thourough in finding nfl talent. Prospects from even D3 schools with no TV exposure get looked at by the tons of scouts. Then there is the nfl combine and pro day. Everything about a possible draft pick is looked at with a fine tooth comb no matter what school they went. Perception as to who to pick is old days, not really today. Today, they measure EVERYTHING about you including your brain! That's why alot of all america team guys not even drafted. Interesting to note that almost every nfl team thought Tebow was a qb lemon and Denver choosing him was an anomoly. They went with his rep as a winner along with being the most media exposed celebrity in college football history. Also, the qb position is the hardest to scrutinize and judge unlike say a lineman or LB. The rest of the nfl teams would not have even drafted him, at least not as a qb. Being on espn every week will not get you drafted any more than the guy whos not. The nfl scouts and coaches aint stupid. If someone is good, they the nfl will know about it no matter what school. College coaches TALK to nfl coaches all the time too. Just saying needing TV exposure to get drafted or being a higher draft pick is overated imo.
Now my suggestion for keeping recruits to stay home. Have somebody show them the adult life by taking them AMP and hostess bar once a week free of charge as "guest". I would gladly take them on the Aloha Korean Bar Tour. I'm JOKING! LOL.[/QUOTE]Previous years division 1 signee from hawaii; [URL]http://www.maxpreps.com/signingday/list.aspx?tab=school&state=HI&ssid=f11d21e3-d9ab-4c9b-974b-ff4fcfed5c76[/URL], [URL]http://www.maxpreps.com/signingday/list.aspx?tab=school&state=HI&ssid=12962347-09a5-472f-9657-920aeaafd78b[/URL], [URL]http://www.maxpreps.com/signingday/list.aspx?tab=school&state=HI&ssid=37631434-bc40-4d46-a7c5-1042c42e338c.[/URL] Here a link saying Hawaii is ranked number 4 by states that have the most d1 signee per capita. We have the base for sustained sucess at the collegiate level, our talent pool is deep and consistant, the university has dropped the ball when it comes to selling the program, this should be the number 1 focus for the athletic department yet we hear nothing, no new strategy, no catch marketing ploy nothing like this problem doesn't exist, same attitude June Jones was confronted with when he tried putting the blocks into place, so sad, when the football program starts winning it becomes a snowball effect, vice versa when losing. By the way we have a projected top 15 recruit in Punahou junior Canton Kaumatule for the 2015 class.
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[QUOTE=Mipene77;1934066]Yea I bet with all that money that they are overpaying Norm Chow with they could probably afford to take the whole team to an AMP pretty often!
So guys really. If all of you say that there is talent here then with all due respect where is the consistent winning record year over year? Why aren't the Bows nationally ranked consistently?[/QUOTE]It's like I've been trying to explain, not only can't we sign them but it seems they arent interested in signing, although I will give coach Chow some credit as he seems to have had the most success so far with signing local guys then all the others before him, but that's been one class, so the jury is still out on wheter he can improve on his start, I aint holding my breath, there needs to be a concerted effort on not just the the coaches, athletic department, university but the high school coaches, koa anuenue, private sector (sponsors) and the community (families, fans, boosters), we face this perception that if at all possible (recieve offers from mainland universities), they will go away for college, grow up to be men and women and get an education at the same time, like they can't get that here, I haven't looked but we must rank low on signing local recruits, could you imagine Alabama not signing a top ten recruit who plays locally? We can, matter of fact we almost never sign the states top recruits so much so, it's not even news nor is it even a discussion as to why, its just accepted, no questions. In 2015 Punahou has a what experts are calling a top twenty recruit nationally, his name is Canton Kaumatule, I'm betting not only we don't sign him but we don't even offer him a scholarship!
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Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think UH can definitely improve on the quality of mainland recruits. The question is how? Offering them the Hawaiian lifestyle, I don't think is enough. As far as my point on the local talent pool, it has to do solely with population.
And I am certain when given the choice of exposure vs. no exposure, recruits will choose exposure. It's as simple as playing the games earlier. It can't hurt as no one hardly goes to the games anyway. Stands are empty, so moving the games earlier can't make it worse.
Anyway, I root hard for UH, so my points, however they differ from others here are meant as constructive.
OK, I'm done with that subject. We'll just be beating a dead horse... ;-)
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[QUOTE=HypoLuxa;1934695]Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think UH can definitely improve on the quality of mainland recruits. The question is how? Offering them the Hawaiian lifestyle, I don't think is enough. As far as my point on the local talent pool, it has to do solely with population.
A1nd I am certain when given the choice of exposure vs. no exposure, recruits will choose exposure. It's as simple as playing the games earlier. It can't hurt as no one hardly goes to the games anyway. Stands are empty, so moving the games earlier can't make it worse.
Anyway, I root hard for UH, so my points, however they differ from others here are meant as constructive.
OK, I'm done with that subject. We'll just be beating a dead horse... ;-)[/QUOTE]Thanks Hypo bro. We ALL want the the best for UH and on the same team. Yeah; agree to disagree is very cool. However, I wish we could could share beers and discuss sports bro. I would bet I could change your perspective while we both get taken care of as we get HJs discussing UH football, LOL. My treat. When you come old, you wont care to be right anyway even when you know more than the othet guy. lol.
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[QUOTE=HypoLuxa;1934695]Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think UH can definitely improve on the quality of mainland recruits. The question is how? Offering them the Hawaiian lifestyle, I don't think is enough. As far as my point on the local talent pool, it has to do solely with population.
And I am certain when given the choice of exposure vs. no exposure, recruits will choose exposure. It's as simple as playing the games earlier. It can't hurt as no one hardly goes to the games anyway. Stands are empty, so moving the games earlier can't make it worse.
Anyway, I root hard for UH, so my points, however they differ from others here are meant as constructive.
OK, I'm done with that subject. We'll just be beating a dead horse... ;-)[/QUOTE]I always look at where something or someone is coming from, most time it matters more than what is said, we both root hard for the Bows, BTW, I always think they can improve on mainland recruiting as well, but I wonder if they feel the same way too?
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NFL Thursday.
NFL Thursday.
NFL ytd 39-38-3.
New Orleans-8.
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Thursday's Picks
Record 62-68-3 YTD.
1-Rutgers +19.
2-UAB +17.
3-UNLV+2.
Good Luck.
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Saturday's Picks
[QUOTE=DaViper;1935413]Record 62-68-3 YTD.
1-Rutgers +19.
2-UAB +17.
3-UNLV+2.
Good Luck.[/QUOTE]1-Wyoming.7.
2-Wisconsin.17.
3-Ohio St-33.
4-Central Michigan.8.
5-Houston.4.
6-Kansas+6.
7-LSU.4.
Record 64-69-3 YTD.
Good Luck.